We present the results of the "Fast Calorimeter Simulation Challenge 2022" -- the CaloChallenge. We study state-of-the-art generative models on four calorimeter shower datasets of increasing dimensionality, ranging from a few hundred voxels to a few tens of thousand voxels. The 31 individual submissions span a wide range of current popular generative architectures, including Variational AutoEncoders (VAEs), Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), Normalizing Flows, Diffusion models, and models based on Conditional Flow Matching. We compare all submissions in terms of quality of generated calorimeter showers, as well as shower generation time and model size. To assess the quality we use a broad range of different metrics including differences in 1-dimensional histograms of observables, KPD/FPD scores, AUCs of binary classifiers, and the log-posterior of a multiclass classifier. The results of the CaloChallenge provide the most complete and comprehensive survey of cutting-edge approaches to calorimeter fast simulation to date. In addition, our work provides a uniquely detailed perspective on the important problem of how to evaluate generative models. As such, the results presented here should be applicable for other domains that use generative AI and require fast and faithful generation of samples in a large phase space.

Large pre-trained models for zero/few-shot learning excel in language and vision domains but encounter challenges in multivariate time series (TS) due to the diverse nature and scarcity of publicly available pre-training data. Consequently, there has been a recent surge in utilizing pre-trained large language models (LLMs) with token adaptations for TS forecasting. These approaches employ cross-domain transfer learning and surprisingly yield impressive results. However, these models are typically very slow and large (~billion parameters) and do not consider cross-channel correlations. To address this, we present Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), a significantly small model based on the lightweight TSMixer architecture. TTM marks the first success in developing fast and tiny general pre-trained models (<1M parameters), exclusively trained on public TS datasets, with effective transfer learning capabilities for forecasting. To tackle the complexity of pre-training on multiple datasets with varied temporal resolutions, we introduce several novel enhancements such as adaptive patching, dataset augmentation via downsampling, and resolution prefix tuning. Moreover, we employ a multi-level modeling strategy to effectively model channel correlations and infuse exogenous signals during fine-tuning, a crucial capability lacking in existing benchmarks. TTM shows significant accuracy gains (12-38\%) over popular benchmarks in few/zero-shot forecasting. It also drastically reduces the compute needs as compared to LLM-TS methods, with a 14X cut in learnable parameters, 106X less total parameters, and substantial reductions in fine-tuning (65X) and inference time (54X). In fact, TTM's zero-shot often surpasses the few-shot results in many popular benchmarks, highlighting the efficacy of our approach. Code and pre-trained models will be open-sourced.

Transformers have gained popularity in time series forecasting for their ability to capture long-sequence interactions. However, their high memory and computing requirements pose a critical bottleneck for long-term forecasting. To address this, we propose TSMixer, a lightweight neural architecture exclusively composed of multi-layer perceptron (MLP) modules for multivariate forecasting and representation learning on patched time series. Inspired by MLP-Mixer's success in computer vision, we adapt it for time series, addressing challenges and introducing validated components for enhanced accuracy. This includes a novel design paradigm of attaching online reconciliation heads to the MLP-Mixer backbone, for explicitly modeling the time-series properties such as hierarchy and channel-correlations. We also propose a novel Hybrid channel modeling and infusion of a simple gating approach to effectively handle noisy channel interactions and generalization across diverse datasets. By incorporating these lightweight components, we significantly enhance the learning capability of simple MLP structures, outperforming complex Transformer models with minimal computing usage. Moreover, TSMixer's modular design enables compatibility with both supervised and masked self-supervised learning methods, making it a promising building block for time-series Foundation Models. TSMixer outperforms state-of-the-art MLP and Transformer models in forecasting by a considerable margin of 8-60%. It also outperforms the latest strong benchmarks of Patch-Transformer models (by 1-2%) with a significant reduction in memory and runtime (2-3X). The source code of our model is officially released as PatchTSMixer in the HuggingFace. Model: https://huggingface.co/docs/transformers/main/en/model_doc/patchtsmixer Examples: https://github.com/ibm/tsfm/#notebooks-links

The efficiency of business processes relies on business key performance indicators (Biz-KPIs), that can be negatively impacted by IT failures. Business and IT Observability (BizITObs) data fuses both Biz-KPIs and IT event channels together as multivariate time series data. Forecasting Biz-KPIs in advance can enhance efficiency and revenue through proactive corrective measures. However, BizITObs data generally exhibit both useful and noisy inter-channel interactions between Biz-KPIs and IT events that need to be effectively decoupled. This leads to suboptimal forecasting performance when existing multivariate forecasting models are employed. To address this, we introduce AutoMixer, a time-series Foundation Model (FM) approach, grounded on the novel technique of channel-compressed pretrain and finetune workflows. AutoMixer leverages an AutoEncoder for channel-compressed pretraining and integrates it with the advanced TSMixer model for multivariate time series forecasting. This fusion greatly enhances the potency of TSMixer for accurate forecasts and also generalizes well across several downstream tasks. Through detailed experiments and dashboard analytics, we show AutoMixer's capability to consistently improve the Biz-KPI's forecasting accuracy (by 11-15\%) which directly translates to actionable business insights.

Learning the complex structure of multivariate time series has been one of the major interests across many application domains, including economics, transportation, manufacturing [Fortuin et al., 2020, Wu et al., 2021, Li et al., 2019, Zhou et al., 2021]. While there has been much progress in the data-driven learning and processing complex time series, it still remains as a challenging topic, in particular, when the data is corrupted [Cao et al., 2018, Kreindler and Lumsden, 2006, Yoon et al., 2018, Du et al., 2022]. In this paper, we consider the forecasting task which aims to make prediction of future values using historical data that may contain missing values. In addition, for many industrial problems, the time series features can be in two categories: auxiliary features (X) that provide information about the state of a system and target variables (Y) that depends on the auxiliary features and may convey valuable information. For example, in the operation of a chemical reactor, the auxiliary features include temperature, pressure and concentration of chemicals observed through a sensor network, while the target variable may include the quality of the material and throughput. We are interested in the time series problem where the data set consists of X and Y. In general, X is more readily available, as it is obtained from a sensor network, while Y may be temporally sparse since it may be expensive or difficult to collect the data. This so-called soft sensor problem has been of interest in many industrial applications [Shardt et al., 2015, Yuan et al., 2021].

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches which are served as input tokens to Transformer; (ii) channel-independence where each channel contains a single univariate time series that shares the same embedding and Transformer weights across all the series. Patching design naturally has three-fold benefit: local semantic information is retained in the embedding; computation and memory usage of the attention maps are quadratically reduced given the same look-back window; and the model can attend longer history. Our channel-independent patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) can improve the long-term forecasting accuracy significantly when compared with that of SOTA Transformer-based models. We also apply our model to self-supervised pre-training tasks and attain excellent fine-tuning performance, which outperforms supervised training on large datasets. Transferring of masked pre-trained representation on one dataset to others also produces SOTA forecasting accuracy. Code is available at: https://github.com/yuqinie98/PatchTST.

Federated learning (FL) learns a model jointly from a set of participating devices without sharing each other's privately held data. The characteristics of non-iid data across the network, low device participation, and the mandate that data remain private bring challenges in understanding the convergence of FL algorithms, particularly in regards to how convergence scales with the number of participating devices. In this paper, we focus on Federated Averaging (FedAvg)--the most widely used and effective FL algorithm in use today--and provide a comprehensive study of its convergence rate. Although FedAvg has recently been studied by an emerging line of literature, it remains open as to how FedAvg's convergence scales with the number of participating devices in the FL setting--a crucial question whose answer would shed light on the performance of FedAvg in large FL systems. We fill this gap by establishing convergence guarantees for FedAvg under three classes of problems: strongly convex smooth, convex smooth, and overparameterized strongly convex smooth problems. We show that FedAvg enjoys linear speedup in each case, although with different convergence rates. For each class, we also characterize the corresponding convergence rates for the Nesterov accelerated FedAvg algorithm in the FL setting: to the best of our knowledge, these are the first linear speedup guarantees for FedAvg when Nesterov acceleration is used. To accelerate FedAvg, we also design a new momentum-based FL algorithm that further improves the convergence rate in overparameterized linear regression problems. Empirical studies of the algorithms in various settings have supported our theoretical results.

Decision trees have been a very popular class of predictive models for decades due to their interpretability and good performance on categorical features. However, they are not always robust and tend to overfit the data. Additionally, if allowed to grow large, they lose interpretability. In this paper, we present a novel mixed integer programming formulation to construct optimal decision trees of specified size. We take special structure of categorical features into account and allow combinatorial decisions (based on subsets of values of such a feature) at each node. We show that very good accuracy can be achieved with small trees using moderately-sized training sets. The optimization problems we solve are easily tractable with modern solvers.