In this paper, we explore the nature of sudden breakthroughs in language model performance at scale, which stands in contrast to smooth improvements governed by scaling laws. While advocates of "emergence" view abrupt performance gains as capabilities unlocking at specific scales, others have suggested that they are produced by thresholding effects and alleviated by continuous metrics. We propose that breakthroughs are instead driven by continuous changes in the probability distribution of training outcomes, particularly when performance is bimodally distributed across random seeds. In synthetic length generalization tasks, we show that different random seeds can produce either highly linear or emergent scaling trends. We reveal that sharp breakthroughs in metrics are produced by underlying continuous changes in their distribution across seeds. Furthermore, we provide a case study of inverse scaling and show that even as the probability of a successful run declines, the average performance of a successful run continues to increase monotonically. We validate our distributional scaling framework on realistic settings by measuring MMLU performance in LLM populations. These insights emphasize the role of random variation in the effect of scale on LLM capabilities.

In this project, our goal is to determine how to leverage the world-knowledge of pretrained large language models for efficient and robust learning in multiagent decision making. We examine this in a taxi routing and assignment problem where agents must decide how to best pick up passengers in order to minimize overall waiting time. While this problem is situated on a graphical road network, we show that with the proper prompting zero-shot performance is quite strong on this task. Furthermore, with limited fine-tuning along with the one-at-a-time rollout algorithm for look ahead, LLMs can out-compete existing approaches with 50 times fewer environmental interactions. We also explore the benefits of various linguistic prompting approaches and show that including certain easy-to-compute information in the prompt significantly improves performance. Finally, we highlight the LLM's built-in semantic understanding, showing its ability to adapt to environmental factors through simple prompts.

In recent years, masked diffusion models (MDMs) have emerged as a promising alternative approach for generative modeling over discrete domains. Compared to autoregressive models (ARMs), MDMs trade off complexity at training time with flexibility at inference time. At training time, they must learn to solve an exponentially large number of infilling problems, but at inference time, they can decode tokens in essentially arbitrary order. In this work, we closely examine these two competing effects. On the training front, we theoretically and empirically demonstrate that MDMs indeed train on computationally intractable subproblems compared to their autoregressive counterparts. On the inference front, we show that a suitable strategy for adaptively choosing the token decoding order significantly enhances the capabilities of MDMs, allowing them to sidestep hard subproblems. On logic puzzles like Sudoku, we show that adaptive inference can boost solving accuracy in pretrained MDMs from $<7$% to $\approx 90$%, even outperforming ARMs with $7\times$ as many parameters and that were explicitly trained via teacher forcing to learn the right order of decoding.

Recent advancements in deep learning optimization have introduced new algorithms, such as Schedule-Free optimizers, AdEMAMix, MARS and Lion which modify traditional momentum mechanisms. In a separate line of work, theoretical acceleration of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in noise-dominated regime has been achieved by decoupling the momentum coefficient from the current gradient's weight. In this paper, we establish explicit connections between these two lines of work. We substantiate our theoretical findings with preliminary experiments on a 150m language modeling task. We find that AdEMAMix, which most closely resembles accelerated versions of stochastic gradient descent, exhibits superior performance. Building on these insights, we introduce a modification to AdEMAMix, termed Simplified-AdEMAMix, which maintains the same performance as AdEMAMix across both large and small batch-size settings while eliminating the need for two different momentum terms. The code for Simplified-AdEMAMix is available on the repository: https://github.com/DepenM/Simplified-AdEMAMix/.

In continual learning, where task data arrives in a sequence, fine-tuning on later tasks will often lead to performance degradation on earlier tasks. This is especially pronounced when these tasks come from diverse domains. In this setting, how can we mitigate catastrophic forgetting of earlier tasks and retain what the model has learned with minimal computational expenses? Inspired by other merging methods, and L2-regression, we propose Sequential Fine-tuning with Averaging (SFA), a method that merges currently training models with earlier checkpoints during the course of training. SOTA approaches typically maintain a data buffer of past tasks or impose a penalty at each gradient step. In contrast, our method achieves comparable results without the need to store past data, or multiple copies of parameters for each gradient step. Furthermore, our method outperforms common merging techniques such as Task Arithmetic, TIES Merging, and WiSE-FT, as well as other penalty methods like L2 and Elastic Weight Consolidation. In turn, our method offers insight into the benefits of merging partially-trained models during training across both image and language domains.

Three-dimensional (3D) understanding of objects and scenes play a key role in humans' ability to interact with the world and has been an active area of research in computer vision, graphics, and robotics. Large scale synthetic and object-centric 3D datasets have shown to be effective in training models that have 3D understanding of objects. However, applying a similar approach to real-world objects and scenes is difficult due to a lack of large-scale data. Videos are a potential source for real-world 3D data, but finding diverse yet corresponding views of the same content has shown to be difficult at scale. Furthermore, standard videos come with fixed viewpoints, determined at the time of capture. This restricts the ability to access scenes from a variety of more diverse and potentially useful perspectives. We argue that large scale 360 videos can address these limitations to provide: scalable corresponding frames from diverse views. In this paper, we introduce 360-1M, a 360 video dataset, and a process for efficiently finding corresponding frames from diverse viewpoints at scale. We train our diffusion-based model, Odin, on 360-1M. Empowered by the largest real-world, multi-view dataset to date, Odin is able to freely generate novel views of real-world scenes. Unlike previous methods, Odin can move the camera through the environment, enabling the model to infer the geometry and layout of the scene. Additionally, we show improved performance on standard novel view synthesis and 3D reconstruction benchmarks.

While synthetic data, often generated by LLMs, offers a valuable complement to human-generated data, its misuse can harm performance. Bertrand et al. (2023) and Gerstgrasser et al. (2024) showed self-training on model-generated data leads to degradation. To mitigate this, incorporating a "reliable" verifier to label data has shown promise in preventing such performance collapse (Gillman et al., 2024). A straightforward verification mechanism is to train a reward model on human-annotated data to assess the quality of synthetic data (Lightman et al., 2023; Wang et al., 2024a). However, this approach can be prohibitively expensive and may offer few signals in domains where models exhibit super-human performance. An alternative is to use a stronger model (Chang et al., 2023; Havrilla et al., 2024) for annotation, but this becomes infeasible when the model is at the frontier of current capabilities. A promising solution is to use the model to label its own generations. Motivated by the intuition that "verification is easier than generation", one can hypothesize that the model may act as a better-than-random verifier of its own outputs, enabling self-improvement (Zelikman et al., 2022).

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) is a popular technique for parameter-efficient fine-tuning of Large Language Models (LLMs). We study how different LoRA modules can be merged to achieve skill composition -- testing the performance of the merged model on a target task that involves combining multiple skills, each skill coming from a single LoRA. This setup is favorable when it is difficult to obtain training data for the target task and when it can be decomposed into multiple skills. First, we identify practically occurring use-cases that can be studied under the realm of skill composition, e.g. solving hard math-word problems with code, creating a bot to answer questions on proprietary manuals or about domain-specialized corpora. Our main contribution is to show that concatenation of LoRAs (CAT), which optimally weights LoRAs that were individually trained on different skills, outperforms existing model- and data- merging techniques; for instance on math-word problems, CAT beats these methods by an average of 43% and 12% respectively. Thus, this paper advocates model merging as an efficient way to solve compositional tasks and underscores CAT as a simple, compute-friendly and effective procedure. To our knowledge, this is the first work demonstrating the superiority of model merging over data mixing for binary skill composition tasks. Code and data are available at https://github.com/aksh555/LoRA-Soups

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

Efficient optimization is critical in pre-training large models (LMs) at scale (McCandlish et al., 2018; Shoeybi et al., 2019; Kaplan et al., 2020). In particular, large-batch training is key to accelerating training, as it enables more efficient parallelism across hardware accelerators (You et al., 2017; Goyal et al., 2018). Specifically, understanding the scaling behavior of the critical batch size (CBS) is essential for optimizing data parallelism, as it defines the point beyond which increasing the batch size may result in computational efficiency degradation. Below the CBS, approximately linear scaling is achievable--doubling the batch size can proportionally reduce the number of optimization steps required to reach a target loss. However, beyond this threshold, further increases in batch size would lead to diminishing returns, making it essential to balance computational efficiency with model performance (McCandlish et al., 2018; Shallue et al., 2019). This trade-off presents a challenge for studying pre-training given resource constraints as practitioners are compelled to navigate difficult decisions in balancing compute, data, and training time. We investigate the scaling laws governing CBS in the context of autoregressive transformerbased language modeling (Vaswani, 2017; Radford et al., 2018). Analyzing CBS in pre-training is challenging due to the absence of a precise formalism relating it to model and data sizes in the literature (McCandlish et al., 2018; Kaplan et al., 2020).