Dose-finding design based on level set estimation in phase I cancer clinical trials Keiichiro Seno 1 a, Kota Matsui 2b, Shogo Iwazaki 3, Yu Inatsu 4, Shion Takeno 5, 6 and Shigeyuki Matsui 2, 7 1 Department of Biostatistics, Nagoya University 2 Department of Biostatistics, Kyoto University 3 MI-6 Ltd. 4 Department of Computer Science, Nagoya Institute of Technology 5 Department of Mechanical Systems Engineering, Nagoya University 6 Center for Advanced Intelligence Project, RIKEN 7 Research Center for Medical and Health Data Science, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Abstract The primary objective of phase I cancer clinical trials is to evaluate the safety of a new experimental treatment and to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). We show that the MTD estimation problem can be regarded as a level set estimation (LSE) problem whose objective is to determine the regions where an unknown function value is above or below a given threshold. Then, we propose a novel ...

Bayesian optimization based on Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) has a theoretical guarantee for optimizing black-box functions. Black-box functions often have input uncertainty, but even in this case, GP-UCB can be extended to optimize evaluation measures called robustness measures. However, GP-UCB-based methods for robustness measures include a trade-off parameter $\beta$, which must be excessively large to achieve theoretical validity, just like the original GP-UCB. In this study, we propose a new method called randomized robustness measure GP-UCB (RRGP-UCB), which samples the trade-off parameter $\beta$ from a probability distribution based on a chi-squared distribution and avoids explicitly specifying $\beta$. The expected value of $\beta$ is not excessively large. Furthermore, we show that RRGP-UCB provides tight bounds on the expected value of regret based on the optimal solution and estimated solutions. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method through numerical experiments.

Gaussian process regression (GPR) or kernel ridge regression is a widely used and powerful tool for nonlinear prediction. Therefore, active learning (AL) for GPR, which actively collects data labels to achieve an accurate prediction with fewer data labels, is an important problem. However, existing AL methods do not theoretically guarantee prediction accuracy for target distribution. Furthermore, as discussed in the distributionally robust learning literature, specifying the target distribution is often difficult. Thus, this paper proposes two AL methods that effectively reduce the worst-case expected error for GPR, which is the worst-case expectation in target distribution candidates. We show an upper bound of the worst-case expected squared error, which suggests that the error will be arbitrarily small by a finite number of data labels under mild conditions. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods through synthetic and real-world datasets.

Coreset selection, which involves selecting a small subset from an existing training dataset, is an approach to reducing training data, and various approaches have been proposed for this method. In practical situations where these methods are employed, it is often the case that the data distributions differ between the development phase and the deployment phase, with the latter being unknown. Thus, it is challenging to select an effective subset of training data that performs well across all deployment scenarios. We therefore propose Distributionally Robust Coreset Selection (DRCS). DRCS theoretically derives an estimate of the upper bound for the worst-case test error, assuming that the future covariate distribution may deviate within a defined range from the training distribution. Furthermore, by selecting instances in a way that suppresses the estimate of the upper bound for the worst-case test error, DRCS achieves distributionally robust training instance selection. This study is primarily applicable to convex training computation, but we demonstrate that it can also be applied to deep learning under appropriate approximations. In this paper, we focus on covariate shift, a type of data distribution shift, and demonstrate the effectiveness of DRCS through experiments.

Reducing the amount of training data while preserving model performance remains a fundamental challenge in machine learning. Dataset distillation seeks to generate synthetic instances that encapsulate the essential information of the original data [31]. This synthetic approach often proves more flexible and can potentially achieve greater data reduction than simply retaining subsets of actual instances. Such distilled datasets can also serve broader applications, for example by enabling efficient continual learning with reduced storage demands [14, 23, 3], and offering privacy safeguards through data corruption [2, 12]. Existing dataset distillation methods are essentially formulated as a bi-level optimization problem. This is because generating synthetic instances requires retraining the model with those instances as training data. Specifically, synthetic instances are created in the outer loop, and the model is trained in the inner loop, leading to high computational costs. A promising approach to avoid bi-level optimization is a method called Kernel Inducing Point (KIP) [18]. The KIP method avoids bi-level optimization by obtaining an analytical solution in its inner loop, effectively leveraging the fact that its loss function is a variant of squared loss.

In this study, we propose a machine learning method called Distributionally Robust Safe Sample Screening (DRSSS). DRSSS aims to identify unnecessary training samples, even when the distribution of the training samples changes in the future. To achieve this, we effectively combine the distributionally robust (DR) paradigm, which aims to enhance model robustness against variations in data distribution, with the safe sample screening (SSS), which identifies unnecessary training samples prior to model training. Since we need to consider an infinite number of scenarios regarding changes in the distribution, we applied SSS because it does not require model training after the change of the distribution. In this paper, we employed the covariate shift framework to represent the distribution of training samples and reformulated the DR covariate-shift problem as a weighted empirical risk minimization problem, where the weights are subject to uncertainty within a predetermined range. By extending the existing SSS technique to accommodate this weight uncertainty, the DRSSS method is capable of reliably identifying unnecessary samples under any future distribution within a specified range. We provide a theoretical guarantee for the DRSSS method and validate its performance through numerical experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

In this study, we propose a method Distributionally Robust Safe Screening (DRSS), for identifying unnecessary samples and features within a DR covariate shift setting. This method effectively combines DR learning, a paradigm aimed at enhancing model robustness against variations in data distribution, with safe screening (SS), a sparse optimization technique designed to identify irrelevant samples and features prior to model training. The core concept of the DRSS method involves reformulating the DR covariate-shift problem as a weighted empirical risk minimization problem, where the weights are subject to uncertainty within a predetermined range. By extending the SS technique to accommodate this weight uncertainty, the DRSS method is capable of reliably identifying unnecessary samples and features under any future distribution within a specified range. We provide a theoretical guarantee of the DRSS method and validate its performance through numerical experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

In this study, we propose a novel multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) method to efficiently identify the Pareto front (PF) defined by risk measures for black-box functions under the presence of input uncertainty (IU). Existing BO methods for Pareto optimization in the presence of IU are risk-specific or without theoretical guarantees, whereas our proposed method addresses general risk measures and has theoretical guarantees. The basic idea of the proposed method is to assume a Gaussian process (GP) model for the black-box function and to construct high-probability bounding boxes for the risk measures using the GP model. Furthermore, in order to reduce the uncertainty of non-dominated bounding boxes, we propose a method of selecting the next evaluation point using a maximin distance defined by the maximum value of a quasi distance based on bounding boxes. As theoretical analysis, we prove that the algorithm can return an arbitrary-accurate solution in a finite number of iterations with high probability, for various risk measures such as Bayes risk, worst-case risk, and value-at-risk. We also give a theoretical analysis that takes into account approximation errors because there exist non-negligible approximation errors (e.g., finite approximation of PFs and sampling-based approximation of bounding boxes) in practice. We confirm that the proposed method outperforms compared with existing methods not only in the setting with IU but also in the setting of ordinary MOBO through numerical experiments.

Among various acquisition functions (AFs) in Bayesian optimization (BO), Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) and Thompson sampling (TS) are well-known options with established theoretical properties regarding Bayesian cumulative regret (BCR). Recently, it has been shown that a randomized variant of GP-UCB achieves a tighter BCR bound compared with GP-UCB, which we call the tighter BCR bound for brevity. Inspired by this study, this paper first shows that TS achieves the tighter BCR bound. On the other hand, GP-UCB and TS often practically suffer from manual hyperparameter tuning and over-exploration issues, respectively. To overcome these difficulties, we propose yet another AF called a probability of improvement from the maximum of a sample path (PIMS). We show that PIMS achieves the tighter BCR bound and avoids the hyperparameter tuning, unlike GP-UCB. Furthermore, we demonstrate a wide range of experiments, focusing on the effectiveness of PIMS that mitigates the practical issues of GP-UCB and TS.

Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) is a theoretically promising approach for black-box optimization; however, the confidence parameter $\beta$ is considerably large in the theorem and chosen heuristically in practice. Then, randomized GP-UCB (RGP-UCB) uses a randomized confidence parameter, which follows the Gamma distribution, to mitigate the impact of manually specifying $\beta$. This study first generalizes the regret analysis of RGP-UCB to a wider class of distributions, including the Gamma distribution. Furthermore, we propose improved RGP-UCB (IRGP-UCB) based on a two-parameter exponential distribution, which achieves tighter Bayesian regret bounds. IRGP-UCB does not require an increase in the confidence parameter in terms of the number of iterations, which avoids over-exploration in the later iterations. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of IRGP-UCB through extensive experiments.