Deep learning models that leverage large datasets are often the state of the art for modelling molecular properties. When the datasets are smaller (< 2000 molecules), it is not clear that deep learning approaches are the right modelling tool. In this work we perform an extensive study of the calibration and generalizability of probabilistic machine learning models on small chemical datasets. Using different molecular representations and models, we analyse the quality of their predictions and uncertainties in a variety of tasks (binary, regression) and datasets. We also introduce two simulated experiments that evaluate their performance: (1) Bayesian optimization guided molecular design, (2) inference on out-of-distribution data via ablated cluster splits. We offer practical insights into model and feature choice for modelling small chemical datasets, a common scenario in new chemical experiments. We have packaged our analysis into the DIONYSUS repository, which is open sourced to aid in reproducibility and extension to new datasets.

Bayesian optimization has emerged as a powerful strategy to accelerate scientific discovery by means of autonomous experimentation. However, expensive measurements are required to accurately estimate materials properties, and can quickly become a hindrance to exhaustive materials discovery campaigns. Here, we introduce Gemini: a data-driven model capable of using inexpensive measurements as proxies for expensive measurements by correcting systematic biases between property evaluation methods. We recommend using Gemini for regression tasks with sparse data and in an autonomous workflow setting where its predictions of expensive to evaluate objectives can be used to construct a more informative acquisition function, thus reducing the number of expensive evaluations an optimizer needs to achieve desired target values. In a regression setting, we showcase the ability of our method to make accurate predictions of DFT calculated bandgaps of hybrid organic-inorganic perovskite materials. We further demonstrate the benefits that Gemini provides to autonomous workflows by augmenting the Bayesian optimizer Phoenics to yeild a scalable optimization framework leveraging multiple sources of measurement. Finally, we simulate an autonomous materials discovery platform for optimizing the activity of electrocatalysts for the oxygen evolution reaction. Realizing autonomous workflows with Gemini, we show that the number of measurements of a composition space comprising expensive and rare metals needed to achieve a target overpotential is significantly reduced when measurements from a proxy composition system with less expensive metals are available.

Research challenges encountered across science, engineering, and economics can frequently be formulated as optimization tasks. In chemistry and materials science, recent growth in laboratory digitization and automation has sparked interest in optimization-guided autonomous discovery and closed-loop experimentation. Experiment planning strategies based on off-the-shelf optimization algorithms can be employed in fully autonomous research platforms to achieve desired experimentation goals with the minimum number of trials. However, the experiment planning strategy that is most suitable to a scientific discovery task is a priori unknown while rigorous comparisons of different strategies are highly time and resource demanding. As optimization algorithms are typically benchmarked on low-dimensional synthetic functions, it is unclear how their performance would translate to noisy, higher-dimensional experimental tasks encountered in chemistry and materials science. We introduce Olympus, a software package that provides a consistent and easy-to-use framework for benchmarking optimization algorithms against realistic experiments emulated via probabilistic deep-learning models. Olympus includes a collection of experimentally derived benchmark sets from chemistry and materials science and a suite of experiment planning strategies that can be easily accessed via a user-friendly python interface. Furthermore, Olympus facilitates the integration, testing, and sharing of custom algorithms and user-defined datasets. In brief, Olympus mitigates the barriers associated with benchmarking optimization algorithms on realistic experimental scenarios, promoting data sharing and the creation of a standard framework for evaluating the performance of experiment planning strategies