When dealing with right-censored data, where some outcomes are missing due to a limited observation period, survival analysis -- known as time-to-event analysis -- focuses on predicting the time until an event of interest occurs. Multiple classes of outcomes lead to a classification variant: predicting the most likely event, a less explored area known as competing risks. Classic competing risks models couple architecture and loss, limiting scalability.To address these issues, we design a strictly proper censoring-adjusted separable scoring rule, allowing optimization on a subset of the data as each observation is evaluated independently. The loss estimates outcome probabilities and enables stochastic optimization for competing risks, which we use for efficient gradient boosting trees. SurvivalBoost not only outperforms 12 state-of-the-art models across several metrics on 4 real-life datasets, both in competing risks and survival settings, but also provides great calibration, the ability to predict across any time horizon, and computation times faster than existing methods.

When data are right-censored, i.e. some outcomes are missing due to a limited period of observation, survival analysis can compute the "time to event". Multiple classes of outcomes lead to a classification variant: predicting the most likely event, known as competing risks, which has been less studied. To build a loss that estimates outcome probabilities for such settings, we introduce a strictly proper censoring-adjusted separable scoring rule that can be optimized on a subpart of the data because the evaluation is made independently of observations. It enables stochastic optimization for competing risks which we use to train gradient boosting trees. Compared to 11 state-of-the-art models, this model, MultiIncidence, performs best in estimating the probability of outcomes in survival and competing risks. It can predict at any time horizon and is much faster than existing alternatives.

The use of complex models --with many parameters-- is challenging with high-dimensional small-sample problems: indeed, they face rapid overfitting. Such situations are common when data collection is expensive, as in neuroscience, biology, or geology. Dedicated regularization can be crafted to tame overfit, typically via structured penalties. But rich penalties require mathematical expertise and entail large computational costs. Stochastic regularizers such as dropout are easier to implement: they prevent overfitting by random perturbations. Used inside a stochastic optimizer, they come with little additional cost. We propose a structured stochastic regularization that relies on feature grouping. Using a fast clustering algorithm, we define a family of groups of features that capture feature covariations. We then randomly select these groups inside a stochastic gradient descent loop. This procedure acts as a structured regularizer for high-dimensional correlated data without additional computational cost and it has a denoising effect. We demonstrate the performance of our approach for logistic regression both on a sample-limited face image dataset with varying additive noise and on a typical high-dimensional learning problem, brain image classification.

Imaging neuroscience links human behavior to aspects of brain biology in ever-increasing datasets. Existing neuroimaging methods typically perform either discovery of unknown neural structure or testing of neural structure associated with mental tasks. However, testing hypotheses on the neural correlates underlying larger sets of mental tasks necessitates adequate representations for the observations. We therefore propose to blend representation modelling and task classification into a unified statistical learning problem. A multinomial logistic regression is introduced that is constrained by factored coefficients and coupled with an autoencoder. We show that this approach yields more accurate and interpretable neural models of psychological tasks in a reference dataset, as well as better generalization to other datasets.