We propose a novel VQA dataset, based on picture stories designed for educating young children, that aims to facilitate comprehensive evaluation and characterization of vision-language models on comprehension tasks. Unlike current VQA datasets that often focus on fact-based memorization and simple reasoning tasks without principled scientific grounding, we collect data containing tasks reflecting different levels of comprehension and underlying cognitive processes, as laid out in Bloom's Taxonomy, a classic framework widely adopted in education research. The proposed BloomVQA dataset can be mapped to a hierarchical graph-based representation of visual stories, enabling automatic data augmentation and novel measures characterizing model consistency across the underlying taxonomy. We demonstrate graded evaluation and reliability analysis based on our proposed consistency metrics on state-of-the-art vision-language models. Our results suggest that, while current models achieve the most gain on low-level comprehension tasks, they generally fall short on high-level tasks requiring more advanced comprehension and cognitive skills, as 38.0% drop in VQA accuracy is observed comparing lowest and highest level tasks. Furthermore, current models show consistency patterns misaligned with human comprehension in various scenarios, suggesting emergent structures of model behaviors.

Predictive uncertainty estimation remains a challenging problem precluding the use of deep neural networks as subsystems within safety-critical applications. Aleatoric uncertainty is a component of predictive uncertainty that cannot be reduced through model improvements. Uncertainty propagation seeks to estimate aleatoric uncertainty by propagating input uncertainties to network predictions. Existing uncertainty propagation techniques use one-way information flows, propagating uncertainties layer-by-layer or across the entire neural network while relying either on sampling or analytical techniques for propagation. Motivated by the complex information flows within deep neural networks (e.g. skip connections), we developed and evaluated a novel approach by posing uncertainty propagation as a non-linear optimization problem using factor graphs. We observed statistically significant improvements in performance over prior work when using factor graphs across most of our experiments that included three datasets and two neural network architectures. Our implementation balances the benefits of sampling and analytical propagation techniques, which we believe, is a key factor in achieving performance improvements.

Existing conformal prediction algorithms estimate prediction intervals at target confidence levels to characterize the performance of a regression model on new test samples. However, considering an autonomous system consisting of multiple modules, prediction intervals constructed for individual modules fall short of accommodating uncertainty propagation over different modules and thus cannot provide reliable predictions on system behavior. We address this limitation and present novel solutions based on conformal prediction to provide prediction intervals calibrated for a predictive system consisting of cascaded modules (e.g., an upstream feature extraction module and a downstream regression module). Our key idea is to leverage module-level validation data to characterize the system-level error distribution without direct access to end-to-end validation data. We provide theoretical justification and empirical experimental results to demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed solutions. In comparison to prediction intervals calibrated for individual modules, our solutions generate improved intervals with more accurate performance guarantees for system predictions, which are demonstrated on both synthetic systems and real-world systems performing overlap prediction for indoor navigation using the Matterport3D dataset.