Autonomous machine learning systems that learn many tasks in sequence are prone to the catastrophic forgetting problem. Mathematical theory is needed in order to understand the extent of forgetting during continual learning. As a foundational step towards this goal, we study continual learning and catastrophic forgetting from a theoretical perspective in the simple setting of gradient descent with no explicit algorithmic mechanism to prevent forgetting. In this setting, we analytically demonstrate that overparameterization alone can mitigate forgetting in the context of a linear regression model. We consider a two-task setting motivated by permutation tasks, and show that as the overparameterization ratio becomes sufficiently high, a model trained on both tasks in sequence results in a low-risk estimator for the first task. As part of this work, we establish a non-asymptotic bound of the risk of a single linear regression task, which may be of independent interest to the field of double descent theory.

In continual learning, catastrophic forgetting is affected by multiple aspects of the tasks. Previous works have analyzed separately how forgetting is affected by either task similarity or overparameterization. In contrast, our paper examines how task similarity and overparameterization jointly affect forgetting in an analyzable model. Specifically, we focus on two-task continual linear regression, where the second task is a random orthogonal transformation of an arbitrary first task (an abstraction of random permutation tasks). We derive an exact analytical expression for the expected forgetting - and uncover a nuanced pattern. In highly overparameterized models, intermediate task similarity causes the most forgetting. However, near the interpolation threshold, forgetting decreases monotonically with the expected task similarity. We validate our findings with linear regression on synthetic data, and with neural networks on established permutation task benchmarks.