Subseasonal forecasting -- predicting temperature and precipitation 2 to 6 weeks ahead -- is critical for effective water allocation, wildfire management, and drought and flood mitigation. Recent international research efforts have advanced the subseasonal capabilities of operational dynamical models, yet temperature and precipitation prediction skills remain poor, partly due to stubborn errors in representing atmospheric dynamics and physics inside dynamical models. Here, to counter these errors, we introduce an adaptive bias correction (ABC) method that combines state-of-the-art dynamical forecasts with observations using machine learning. We show that, when applied to the leading subseasonal model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), ABC improves temperature forecasting skill by 60-90% (over baseline skills of 0.18-0.25) and precipitation forecasting skill by 40-69% (over baseline skills of 0.11-0.15) in the contiguous U.S. We couple these performance improvements with a practical workflow to explain ABC skill gains and identify higher-skill windows of opportunity based on specific climate conditions.

We develop a subseasonal forecasting toolkit of simple learned benchmark models that outperform both operational practice and state-of-the-art machine learning and deep learning methods. Our new models include (a) Climatology++, an adaptive alternative to climatology that, for precipitation, is 9% more accurate and 250% more skillful than the United States operational Climate Forecasting System (CFSv2); (b) CFSv2++, a learned CFSv2 correction that improves temperature and precipitation accuracy by 7-8% and skill by 50-275%; and (c) Persistence++, an augmented persistence model that combines CFSv2 forecasts with lagged measurements to improve temperature and precipitation accuracy by 6-9% and skill by 40-130%. Across the contiguous U.S., our Climatology++, CFSv2++, and Persistence++ toolkit consistently outperforms standard meteorological baselines, state-of-the-art machine and deep learning methods, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble. Overall, we find that augmenting traditional forecasting approaches with learned enhancements yields an effective and computationally inexpensive strategy for building the next generation of subseasonal forecasting benchmarks.

Inspired by the demands of real-time climate and weather forecasting, we develop optimistic online learning algorithms that require no parameter tuning and have optimal regret guarantees under delayed feedback. Our algorithms -- DORM, DORM+, and AdaHedgeD -- arise from a novel reduction of delayed online learning to optimistic online learning that reveals how optimistic hints can mitigate the regret penalty caused by delay. We pair this delay-as-optimism perspective with a new analysis of optimistic learning that exposes its robustness to hinting errors and a new meta-algorithm for learning effective hinting strategies in the presence of delay. We conclude by benchmarking our algorithms on four subseasonal climate forecasting tasks, demonstrating low regret relative to state-of-the-art forecasting models.

The gap between our ability to collect interesting data and our ability to analyze these data is growing at an unprecedented rate. Recent algorithmic attempts to fill this gap have employed unsupervised tools to discover structure in data. Some of the most successful approaches have used probabilistic models to uncover latent thematic structure in discrete data. Despite the success of these models on textual data, they have not generalized as well to image data, in part because of the spatial and temporal structure that may exist in an image stream. We introduce a novel unsupervised machine learning framework that incorporates the ability of convolutional autoencoders to discover features from images that directly encode spatial information, within a Bayesian nonparametric topic model that discovers meaningful latent patterns within discrete data. By using this hybrid framework, we overcome the fundamental dependency of traditional topic models on rigidly hand-coded data representations, while simultaneously encoding spatial dependency in our topics without adding model complexity. We apply this model to the motivating application of high-level scene understanding and mission summarization for exploratory marine robots. Our experiments on a seafloor dataset collected by a marine robot show that the proposed hybrid framework outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches on the task of unsupervised seafloor terrain characterization.