Structural causal models (SCMs) allow us to investigate complex systems at multiple levels of resolution. The causal abstraction (CA) framework formalizes the mapping between high- and low-level SCMs. We address CA learning in a challenging and realistic setting, where SCMs are inaccessible, interventional data is unavailable, and sample data is misaligned. A key principle of our framework is $\textit{semantic embedding}$, formalized as the high-level distribution lying on a subspace of the low-level one. This principle naturally links linear CA to the geometry of the $\textit{Stiefel manifold}$. We present a category-theoretic approach to SCMs that enables the learning of a CA by finding a morphism between the low- and high-level probability measures, adhering to the semantic embedding principle. Consequently, we formulate a general CA learning problem. As an application, we solve the latter problem for linear CA; considering Gaussian measures and the Kullback-Leibler divergence as an objective. Given the nonconvexity of the learning task, we develop three algorithms building upon existing paradigms for Riemannian optimization. We demonstrate that the proposed methods succeed on both synthetic and real-world brain data with different degrees of prior information about the structure of CA.

Multi-armed bandits (MAB) and causal MABs (CMAB) are established frameworks for decision-making problems. The majority of prior work typically studies and solves individual MAB and CMAB in isolation for a given problem and associated data. However, decision-makers are often faced with multiple related problems and multi-scale observations where joint formulations are needed in order to efficiently exploit the problem structures and data dependencies. Transfer learning for CMABs addresses the situation where models are defined on identical variables, although causal connections may differ. In this work, we extend transfer learning to setups involving CMABs defined on potentially different variables, with varying degrees of granularity, and related via an abstraction map. Formally, we introduce the problem of causally abstracted MABs (CAMABs) by relying on the theory of causal abstraction in order to express a rigorous abstraction map. We propose algorithms to learn in a CAMAB, and study their regret. We illustrate the limitations and the strengths of our algorithms on a real-world scenario related to online advertising.

Agent-based models (ABMs) are a powerful tool for modelling complex decision-making systems across application domains, including the social sciences (Baptista et al., 2016), epidemiology (Kerr et al., 2021), and finance (Cont, 2007). Such models provide high-fidelity and granular representations of intricate systems of autonomous, interacting, and decision-making agents by modelling the system under consideration at the level of its individual constituent actors. In this way, ABMs enable decision-makers to experiment with, and understand the potential consequences of, policy interventions of interest, thereby allowing for more effective control of the potentially deleterious effects that arise from the endogenous dynamics of the real-world system. In economic systems, for example, such policy interventions may take the form of imposed limits on loan-to-value ratios in housing markets as a means for attenuating housing price cycles (Baptista et al., 2016), while in epidemiology, such interventions may take the form of (non-)pharmaceutical interventions to inhibit the transmission of a disease (Kerr et al., 2021). Whilst ABMs promise many benefits, their complexity generally necessitates the use of simulation studies to understand their behaviours, and their granularity can result in large computational costs even for single forward simulations. In many cases, such costs can be prohibitively large, presenting a barrier to their use as synthetic test environments for potential policy interventions in practice. Moreover, the high-fidelity data generated by ABMs can be difficult for policymakers to interpret and relate to policy interventions that act system-wide (Haldane and Turrell, 2018).

Causal abstraction (CA) theory establishes formal criteria for relating multiple structural causal models (SCMs) at different levels of granularity by defining maps between them. These maps have significant relevance for real-world challenges such as synthesizing causal evidence from multiple experimental environments, learning causally consistent representations at different resolutions, and linking interventions across multiple SCMs. In this work, we propose COTA, the first method to learn abstraction maps from observational and interventional data without assuming complete knowledge of the underlying SCMs. In particular, we introduce a multi-marginal Optimal Transport (OT) formulation that enforces do-calculus causal constraints, together with a cost function that relies on interventional information. We extensively evaluate COTA on synthetic and real world problems, and showcase its advantages over non-causal, independent and aggregated COTA formulations. Finally, we demonstrate the efficiency of our method as a data augmentation tool by comparing it against the state-of-the-art CA learning framework, which assumes fully specified SCMs, on a real-world downstream task.