If computational social science is to find practical application in informing policy decisions and proportionately analyzing courses of action, then it will have to make progress in the area of composition of social models.  Since a single simulation cannot hold a world of information, policy makers need to switch in and out modules in federations of simulations to test policies against all possible social environments.  Voting processes as they occur in nature, both in the form of cognition in a human mind of disparate world views, and in the form of equilibria seeking coevolution of species, inform how to combine model results externally and deeply, respectively.  These algorithms, which use the same principles of soft computation found in nature, enable any models to mesh together, even if they have different ontologies, or their data conflict, regardless of the degree they overlap.  A whiteboard architecture in which models report in their own ontologies how other models may inform them and what they have to offer other models, is a framework for the arbitrary meshing of social models.

Irregular Warfare (IW), with its emphasis on social and cognitive phenomena such as population sentiment, is a major new focus of the Department of Defense (DoD). One of the most important classes of IW action is Information Operations (IO), the use of information to influence sentiment. With the DoD’s new focus on IW comes the new need to analyze and forecast the effects of IO actions on population sentiment. Analysts at the DoD traditionally use Modeling and Simulation to analyze and forecast the effects of conventional warfare’s actions on the outcome of wars, but IW and IO in particular are far more complex than conventional physics-based simulations. DoD analysts are in the early stages of looking for scientifically rigorous methods in the Modeling and Simulation of IO’s complex effects. This paper presents the state of IO modeling and simulation in the DoD, using examples from several computer models now being used, in these early stages of IW analysis. It discusses how the ideas of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) and threshold events in particular may be incorporated into IO modeling in order to increase its scientific rigor, fidelity, and validity.