Surrogate models, crucial for approximating complex simulation data across sciences, inherently carry uncertainties that range from simulation noise to model prediction errors. Without rigorous uncertainty quantification, predictions become unreliable and hence hinder analysis. While methods like Monte Carlo dropout and ensemble models exist, they are often costly, fail to isolate uncertainty types, and lack guaranteed coverage in prediction intervals. To address this, we introduce ConfEviSurrogate, a novel Conformalized Evidential Surrogate Model that can efficiently learn high-order evidential distributions, directly predict simulation outcomes, separate uncertainty sources, and provide prediction intervals. A conformal prediction-based calibration step further enhances interval reliability to ensure coverage and improve efficiency. Our ConfEviSurrogate demonstrates accurate predictions and robust uncertainty estimates in diverse simulations, including cosmology, ocean dynamics, and fluid dynamics.

Existing deep learning-based surrogate models facilitate efficient data generation, but fall short in uncertainty quantification, efficient parameter space exploration, and reverse prediction. In our work, we introduce SurroFlow, a novel normalizing flow-based surrogate model, to learn the invertible transformation between simulation parameters and simulation outputs. The model not only allows accurate predictions of simulation outcomes for a given simulation parameter but also supports uncertainty quantification in the data generation process. Additionally, it enables efficient simulation parameter recommendation and exploration. We integrate SurroFlow and a genetic algorithm as the backend of a visual interface to support effective user-guided ensemble simulation exploration and visualization. Our framework significantly reduces the computational costs while enhancing the reliability and exploration capabilities of scientific surrogate models.