We study the problem of robustly estimating the edge density of Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs $G(n, d^\circ/n)$ when an adversary can arbitrarily add or remove edges incident to an $\eta$-fraction of the nodes. We develop the first polynomial-time algorithm for this problem that estimates $d^\circ$ up to an additive error $O([\sqrt{\log(n) / n} + \eta\sqrt{\log(1/\eta)} ] \cdot \sqrt{d^\circ} + \eta \log(1/\eta))$. Our error guarantee matches information-theoretic lower bounds up to factors of $\log(1/\eta)$. Moreover, our estimator works for all $d^\circ \geq \Omega(1)$ and achieves optimal breakdown point $\eta = 1/2$. Previous algorithms [AJK+22, CDHS24], including inefficient ones, incur significantly suboptimal errors. Furthermore, even admitting suboptimal error guarantees, only inefficient algorithms achieve optimal breakdown point. Our algorithm is based on the sum-of-squares (SoS) hierarchy. A key ingredient is to construct constant-degree SoS certificates for concentration of the number of edges incident to small sets in $G(n, d^\circ/n)$. Crucially, we show that these certificates also exist in the sparse regime, when $d^\circ = o(\log n)$, a regime in which the performance of previous algorithms was significantly suboptimal.

We investigate implications of the (extended) low-degree conjecture (recently formalized in [MW23]) in the context of the symmetric stochastic block model. Assuming the conjecture holds, we establish that no polynomial-time algorithm can weakly recover community labels below the Kesten-Stigum (KS) threshold. In particular, we rule out polynomial-time estimators that, with constant probability, achieve correlation with the true communities that is significantly better than random. Whereas, above the KS threshold, polynomial-time algorithms are known to achieve constant correlation with the true communities with high probability[Mas14,AS15]. To our knowledge, we provide the first rigorous evidence for the sharp transition in recovery rate for polynomial-time algorithms at the KS threshold. Notably, under a stronger version of the low-degree conjecture, our lower bound remains valid even when the number of blocks diverges. Furthermore, our results provide evidence of a computational-to-statistical gap in learning the parameters of stochastic block models. In contrast to prior work, which either (i) rules out polynomial-time algorithms for hypothesis testing with 1-o(1) success probability [Hopkins18, BBK+21a] under the low-degree conjecture, or (ii) rules out low-degree polynomials for learning the edge connection probability matrix [LG23], our approach provides stronger lower bounds on the recovery and learning problem. Our proof combines low-degree lower bounds from [Hopkins18, BBK+21a] with graph splitting and cross-validation techniques. In order to rule out general recovery algorithms, we employ the correlation preserving projection method developed in [HS17].

We give the first polynomial-time, differentially node-private, and robust algorithm for estimating the edge density of Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs and their generalization, inhomogeneous random graphs. We further prove information-theoretical lower bounds, showing that the error rate of our algorithm is optimal up to logarithmic factors. Previous algorithms incur either exponential running time or suboptimal error rates. Two key ingredients of our algorithm are (1) a new sum-of-squares algorithm for robust edge density estimation, and (2) the reduction from privacy to robustness based on sum-of-squares exponential mechanisms due to Hopkins et al. (STOC 2023).

We study computational-statistical gaps for improper learning in sparse linear regression. More specifically, given $n$ samples from a $k$-sparse linear model in dimension $d$, we ask what is the minimum sample complexity to efficiently (in time polynomial in $d$, $k$, and $n$) find a potentially dense estimate for the regression vector that achieves non-trivial prediction error on the $n$ samples. Information-theoretically this can be achieved using $\Theta(k \log (d/k))$ samples. Yet, despite its prominence in the literature, there is no polynomial-time algorithm known to achieve the same guarantees using less than $\Theta(d)$ samples without additional restrictions on the model. Similarly, existing hardness results are either restricted to the proper setting, in which the estimate must be sparse as well, or only apply to specific algorithms. We give evidence that efficient algorithms for this task require at least (roughly) $\Omega(k^2)$ samples. In particular, we show that an improper learning algorithm for sparse linear regression can be used to solve sparse PCA problems (with a negative spike) in their Wishart form, in regimes in which efficient algorithms are widely believed to require at least $\Omega(k^2)$ samples. We complement our reduction with low-degree and statistical query lower bounds for the sparse PCA problems from which we reduce. Our hardness results apply to the (correlated) random design setting in which the covariates are drawn i.i.d. from a mean-zero Gaussian distribution with unknown covariance.

We study robust community detection in the context of node-corrupted stochastic block model, where an adversary can arbitrarily modify all the edges incident to a fraction of the $n$ vertices. We present the first polynomial-time algorithm that achieves weak recovery at the Kesten-Stigum threshold even in the presence of a small constant fraction of corrupted nodes. Prior to this work, even state-of-the-art robust algorithms were known to break under such node corruption adversaries, when close to the Kesten-Stigum threshold. We further extend our techniques to the $Z_2$ synchronization problem, where our algorithm reaches the optimal recovery threshold in the presence of similar strong adversarial perturbations. The key ingredient of our algorithm is a novel identifiability proof that leverages the push-out effect of the Grothendieck norm of principal submatrices.

Consider the setting where a $\rho$-sparse Rademacher vector is planted in a random $d$-dimensional subspace of $R^n$. A classical question is how to recover this planted vector given a random basis in this subspace. A recent result by [ZSWB21] showed that the Lattice basis reduction algorithm can recover the planted vector when $n\geq d+1$. Although the algorithm is not expected to tolerate inverse polynomial amount of noise, it is surprising because it was previously shown that recovery cannot be achieved by low degree polynomials when $n\ll \rho^2 d^{2}$ [MW21]. A natural question is whether we can derive an Statistical Query (SQ) lower bound matching the previous low degree lower bound in [MW21]. This will - imply that the SQ lower bound can be surpassed by lattice based algorithms; - predict the computational hardness when the planted vector is perturbed by inverse polynomial amount of noise. In this paper, we prove such an SQ lower bound. In particular, we show that super-polynomial number of VSTAT queries is needed to solve the easier statistical testing problem when $n\ll \rho^2 d^{2}$ and $\rho\gg \frac{1}{\sqrt{d}}$. The most notable technique we used to derive the SQ lower bound is the almost equivalence relationship between SQ lower bound and low degree lower bound [BBH+20, MW21].

We study symmetric spiked matrix models with respect to a general class of noise distributions. Given a rank-1 deformation of a random noise matrix, whose entries are independently distributed with zero mean and unit variance, the goal is to estimate the rank-1 part. For the case of Gaussian noise, the top eigenvector of the given matrix is a widely-studied estimator known to achieve optimal statistical guarantees, e.g., in the sense of the celebrated BBP phase transition. However, this estimator can fail completely for heavy-tailed noise. In this work, we exhibit an estimator that works for heavy-tailed noise up to the BBP threshold that is optimal even for Gaussian noise. We give a non-asymptotic analysis of our estimator which relies only on the variance of each entry remaining constant as the size of the matrix grows: higher moments may grow arbitrarily fast or even fail to exist. Previously, it was only known how to achieve these guarantees if higher-order moments of the noises are bounded by a constant independent of the size of the matrix. Our estimator can be evaluated in polynomial time by counting self-avoiding walks via a color -coding technique. Moreover, we extend our estimator to spiked tensor models and establish analogous results.