In predictive process monitoring, predictive models are vulnerable to adversarial attacks, where input perturbations can lead to incorrect predictions. Unlike in computer vision, where these perturbations are designed to be imperceptible to the human eye, the generation of adversarial examples in predictive process monitoring poses unique challenges. Minor changes to the activity sequences can create improbable or even impossible scenarios to occur due to underlying constraints such as regulatory rules or process constraints. To address this, we focus on generating realistic adversarial examples tailored to the business process context, in contrast to the imperceptible, pixel-level changes commonly seen in computer vision adversarial attacks. This paper introduces two novel latent space attacks, which generate adversaries by adding noise to the latent space representation of the input data, rather than directly modifying the input attributes. These latent space methods are domain-agnostic and do not rely on process-specific knowledge, as we restrict the generation of adversarial examples to the learned class-specific data distributions by directly perturbing the latent space representation of the business process executions. We evaluate these two latent space methods with six other adversarial attacking methods on eleven real-life event logs and four predictive models. The first three attacking methods directly permute the activities of the historically observed business process executions. The fourth method constrains the adversarial examples to lie within the same data distribution as the original instances, by projecting the adversarial examples to the original data distribution.

In recent years, various machine and deep learning architectures have been successfully introduced to the field of predictive process analytics. Nevertheless, the inherent opacity of these algorithms poses a significant challenge for human decision-makers, hindering their ability to understand the reasoning behind the predictions. This growing concern has sparked the introduction of counterfactual explanations, designed as human-understandable what if scenarios, to provide clearer insights into the decision-making process behind undesirable predictions. The generation of counterfactual explanations, however, encounters specific challenges when dealing with the sequential nature of the (business) process cases typically used in predictive process analytics. Our paper tackles this challenge by introducing a data-driven approach, REVISEDplus, to generate more feasible and plausible counterfactual explanations. First, we restrict the counterfactual algorithm to generate counterfactuals that lie within a high-density region of the process data, ensuring that the proposed counterfactuals are realistic and feasible within the observed process data distribution. Additionally, we ensure plausibility by learning sequential patterns between the activities in the process cases, utilising Declare language templates. Finally, we evaluate the properties that define the validity of counterfactuals.

Organizations execute decisions within business processes on a daily basis whilst having to take into account multiple stakeholders who might require multiple point of views of the same process. Moreover, the complexity of the information systems running these business processes is generally high as they are linked to databases storing all the relevant data and aspects of the processes. Given the presence of multiple objects within an information system which support the processes in their enactment, decisions are naturally influenced by both these perspectives, logged in object-centric process logs. However, the discovery of such decisions from object-centric process logs is not straightforward as it requires to correctly link the involved objects whilst considering the sequential constraints that business processes impose as well as correctly discovering what a decision actually does. This paper proposes the first object-centric decision-mining algorithm called Integrated Object-centric Decision Discovery Algorithm (IODDA). IODDA is able to discover how a decision is structured as well as how a decision is made. Moreover, IODDA is able to discover which activities and object types are involved in the decision-making process. Next, IODDA is demonstrated with the first artificial knowledge-intensive process logs whose log generators are provided to the research community.

Both in operations research (OR) and business process management (BPM), prevalent topics include the modelling of processes in order to identify possible problems such as bottlenecks caused by a mismanagement or lack of resources [1] with the goal to find root causes in the process flow [2]. Over the past two decades, the BPM domain has seen a strong uptake of data-driven process analysis, coined under the term process mining, which uses process data generated by executed processes for cases within an information system [3]. This follows a similar trend in OR, where research shifted because of the access to large databases on (operational) transactions and a lack of back testing [4]. The focus of this study lies with predictive process monitoring [5], the umbrella term geared towards process mining for predictive activities. It allows identifying process-related trends regarding particular outcomes (e.g., will customers be awarded credit?), impeding bottlenecks (e.g., how long will it take to process my credit application?), and whether particular activities will occur in the future (e.g., will a credit check be necessary for this application?). When the concrete objective is to predict the outcome of an incoming, incomplete case, the field of study is referred to as Process Outcome Prediction (POP). The process data used in this research field is also referred to as event logs, as the occurrence of a single activity in a process (case) is referred to as'event'. Moreover, an event log consists of traces, each a sequence of events produced in the context of one case.

The field of predictive process monitoring focuses on case-level models to predict a single specific outcome such as a particular objective, (remaining) time, or next activity/remaining sequence. Recently, a longer-horizon, model-wide approach has been proposed in the form of process model forecasting, which predicts the future state of a whole process model through the forecasting of all activity-to-activity relations at once using time series forecasting. This paper introduces the concept of \emph{predictive process model monitoring} which sits in the middle of both predictive process monitoring and process model forecasting. Concretely, by modelling a process model as a set of constraints being present between activities over time, we can capture more detailed information between activities compared to process model forecasting, while being compatible with typical predictive process monitoring objectives which are often expressed in the same language as these constraints. To achieve this, Processes-As-Movies (PAM) is introduced, i.e., a novel technique capable of jointly mining and predicting declarative process constraints between activities in various windows of a process' execution. PAM predicts what declarative rules hold for a trace (objective-based), which also supports the prediction of all constraints together as a process model (model-based). Various recurrent neural network topologies inspired by video analysis tailored to temporal high-dimensional input are used to model the process model evolution with windows as time steps, including encoder-decoder long short-term memory networks, and convolutional long short-term memory networks. Results obtained over real-life event logs show that these topologies are effective in terms of predictive accuracy and precision.