Chopra, Ayush
On the limits of agency in agent-based models
Chopra, Ayush, Kumar, Shashank, Giray-Kuru, Nurullah, Raskar, Ramesh, Quera-Bofarull, Arnau
Agent-based modeling (ABM) seeks to understand the behavior of complex systems by simulating a collection of agents that act and interact within an environment. Their practical utility requires capturing realistic environment dynamics and adaptive agent behavior while efficiently simulating million-size populations. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) present an opportunity to enhance ABMs by using LLMs as agents with further potential to capture adaptive behavior. However, the computational infeasibility of using LLMs for large populations has hindered their widespread adoption. In this paper, we introduce AgentTorch -- a framework that scales ABMs to millions of agents while capturing high-resolution agent behavior using LLMs. We benchmark the utility of LLMs as ABM agents, exploring the trade-off between simulation scale and individual agency. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, we demonstrate how AgentTorch can simulate 8.4 million agents representing New York City, capturing the impact of isolation and employment behavior on health and economic outcomes. We compare the performance of different agent architectures based on heuristic and LLM agents in predicting disease waves and unemployment rates. Furthermore, we showcase AgentTorch's capabilities for retrospective, counterfactual, and prospective analyses, highlighting how adaptive agent behavior can help overcome the limitations of historical data in policy design. AgentTorch is an open-source project actively being used for policy-making and scientific discovery around the world. The framework is available here: github.com/AgentTorch/AgentTorch.
Private Agent-Based Modeling
Chopra, Ayush, Quera-Bofarull, Arnau, Giray-Kuru, Nurullah, Wooldridge, Michael, Raskar, Ramesh
The practical utility of agent-based models in decision-making relies on their capacity to accurately replicate populations while seamlessly integrating real-world data streams. Yet, the incorporation of such data poses significant challenges due to privacy concerns. To address this issue, we introduce a paradigm for private agent-based modeling wherein the simulation, calibration, and analysis of agent-based models can be achieved without centralizing the agents attributes or interactions. The key insight is to leverage techniques from secure multi-party computation to design protocols for decentralized computation in agent-based models. This ensures the confidentiality of the simulated agents without compromising on simulation accuracy. We showcase our protocols on a case study with an epidemiological simulation comprising over 150,000 agents. We believe this is a critical step towards deploying agent-based models to real-world applications.
First 100 days of pandemic; an interplay of pharmaceutical, behavioral and digital interventions -- A study using agent based modeling
Gupta, Gauri, Kapila, Ritvik, Chopra, Ayush, Raskar, Ramesh
Pandemics, notably the recent COVID-19 outbreak, have impacted both public health and the global economy. A profound understanding of disease progression and efficient response strategies is thus needed to prepare for potential future outbreaks. In this paper, we emphasize the potential of Agent-Based Models (ABM) in capturing complex infection dynamics and understanding the impact of interventions. We simulate realistic pharmaceutical, behavioral, and digital interventions that mirror challenges in real-world policy adoption and suggest a holistic combination of these interventions for pandemic response. Using these simulations, we study the trends of emergent behavior on a large-scale population based on real-world socio-demographic and geo-census data from Kings County in Washington. Our analysis reveals the pivotal role of the initial 100 days in dictating a pandemic's course, emphasizing the importance of quick decision-making and efficient policy development. Further, we highlight that investing in behavioral and digital interventions can reduce the burden on pharmaceutical interventions by reducing the total number of infections and hospitalizations, and by delaying the pandemic's peak. We also infer that allocating the same amount of dollars towards extensive testing with contact tracing and self-quarantine offers greater cost efficiency compared to spending the entire budget on vaccinations.
SARC: Soft Actor Retrospective Critic
Verma, Sukriti, Chopra, Ayush, Subramanian, Jayakumar, Sarkar, Mausoom, Puri, Nikaash, Gupta, Piyush, Krishnamurthy, Balaji
The two-time scale nature of SAC, which is an actor-critic algorithm, is characterised by the fact that the critic estimate has not converged for the actor at any given time, but since the critic learns faster than the actor, it ensures eventual consistency between the two. Various strategies have been introduced in literature to learn better gradient estimates to help achieve better convergence. Since gradient estimates depend upon the critic, we posit that improving the critic can provide a better gradient estimate for the actor at each time. Utilizing this, we propose Soft Actor Retrospective Critic (SARC), where we augment the SAC critic loss with another loss term - retrospective loss - leading to faster critic convergence and consequently, better policy gradient estimates for the actor. An existing implementation of SAC can be easily adapted to SARC with minimal modifications. Through extensive experimentation and analysis, we show that SARC provides consistent improvement over SAC on benchmark environments.
Bayesian calibration of differentiable agent-based models
Quera-Bofarull, Arnau, Chopra, Ayush, Calinescu, Anisoara, Wooldridge, Michael, Dyer, Joel
Agent-based modelling (ABMing) is a powerful and intuitive approach to modelling complex systems; however, the intractability of ABMs' likelihood functions and the non-differentiability of the mathematical operations comprising these models present a challenge to their use in the real world. These difficulties have in turn generated research on approximate Bayesian inference methods for ABMs and on constructing differentiable approximations to arbitrary ABMs, but little work has been directed towards designing approximate Bayesian inference techniques for the specific case of differentiable ABMs. In this work, we aim to address this gap and discuss how generalised variational inference procedures may be employed to provide misspecification-robust Bayesian parameter inferences for differentiable ABMs. We demonstrate with experiments on a differentiable ABM of the COVID-19 pandemic that our approach can result in accurate inferences, and discuss avenues for future work.
Differentiable Agent-based Epidemiology
Chopra, Ayush, Rodrรญguez, Alexander, Subramanian, Jayakumar, Quera-Bofarull, Arnau, Krishnamurthy, Balaji, Prakash, B. Aditya, Raskar, Ramesh
Mechanistic simulators are an indispensable tool for epidemiology to explore the behavior of complex, dynamic infections under varying conditions and navigate uncertain environments. Agent-based models (ABMs) are an increasingly popular simulation paradigm that can represent the heterogeneity of contact interactions with granular detail and agency of individual behavior. However, conventional ABM frameworks are not differentiable and present challenges in scalability; due to which it is non-trivial to connect them to auxiliary data sources. In this paper, we introduce GradABM: a scalable, differentiable design for agent-based modeling that is amenable to gradient-based learning with automatic differentiation. GradABM can quickly simulate million-size populations in few seconds on commodity hardware, integrate with deep neural networks and ingest heterogeneous data sources. This provides an array of practical benefits for calibration, forecasting, and evaluating policy interventions. We demonstrate the efficacy of GradABM via extensive experiments with real COVID-19 and influenza datasets.
DISCO: Dynamic and Invariant Sensitive Channel Obfuscation for deep neural networks
Singh, Abhishek, Chopra, Ayush, Sharma, Vivek, Garza, Ethan, Zhang, Emily, Vepakomma, Praneeth, Raskar, Ramesh
Recent deep learning models have shown remarkable performance in image classification. While these deep learning systems are getting closer to practical deployment, the common assumption made about data is that it does not carry any sensitive information. This assumption may not hold for many practical cases, especially in the domain where an individual's personal information is involved, like healthcare and facial recognition systems. We posit that selectively removing features in this latent space can protect the sensitive information and provide a better privacy-utility trade-off. Consequently, we propose DISCO which learns a dynamic and data driven pruning filter to selectively obfuscate sensitive information in the feature space. We propose diverse attack schemes for sensitive inputs \& attributes and demonstrate the effectiveness of DISCO against state-of-the-art methods through quantitative and qualitative evaluation. Finally, we also release an evaluation benchmark dataset of 1 million sensitive representations to encourage rigorous exploration of novel attack schemes.
MixBoost: Synthetic Oversampling with Boosted Mixup for Handling Extreme Imbalance
Kabra, Anubha, Chopra, Ayush, Puri, Nikaash, Badjatiya, Pinkesh, Verma, Sukriti, Gupta, Piyush, K, Balaji
Training a classification model on a dataset where the instances of one class outnumber those of the other class is a challenging problem. Such imbalanced datasets are standard in real-world situations such as fraud detection, medical diagnosis, and computational advertising. We propose an iterative data augmentation method, MixBoost, which intelligently selects (Boost) and then combines (Mix) instances from the majority and minority classes to generate synthetic hybrid instances that have characteristics of both classes. We evaluate MixBoost on 20 benchmark datasets, show that it outperforms existing approaches, and test its efficacy through significance testing. We also present ablation studies to analyze the impact of the different components of MixBoost.
TRACE: Transform Aggregate and Compose Visiolinguistic Representations for Image Search with Text Feedback
Jandial, Surgan, Chopra, Ayush, Badjatiya, Pinkesh, Chawla, Pranit, Sarkar, Mausoom, Krishnamurthy, Balaji
The ability to efficiently search for images over an indexed database is the cornerstone for several user experiences. Incorporating user feedback, through multi-modal inputs provide flexible and interaction to serve fine-grained specificity in requirements. We specifically focus on text feedback, through descriptive natural language queries. Given a reference image and textual user feedback, our goal is to retrieve images that satisfy constraints specified by both of these input modalities. The task is challenging as it requires understanding the textual semantics from the text feedback and then applying these changes to the visual representation. To address these challenges, we propose a novel architecture TRACE which contains a hierarchical feature aggregation module to learn the composite visio-linguistic representations. TRACE achieves the SOTA performance on 3 benchmark datasets: FashionIQ, Shoes, and Birds-to-Words, with an average improvement of at least ~5.7%, ~3%, and ~5% respectively in R@K metric. Our extensive experiments and ablation studies show that TRACE consistently outperforms the existing techniques by significant margins both quantitatively and qualitatively.