Contingency planning, wherein an agent generates a set of possible plans conditioned on the outcome of an uncertain event, is an increasingly popular way for robots to act under uncertainty. In this work we take a game-theoretic perspective on contingency planning, tailored to multi-agent scenarios in which a robot's actions impact the decisions of other agents and vice versa. The resulting contingency game allows the robot to efficiently interact with other agents by generating strategic motion plans conditioned on multiple possible intents for other actors in the scene. Contingency games are parameterized via a scalar variable which represents a future time when intent uncertainty will be resolved. By estimating this parameter online, we construct a game-theoretic motion planner that adapts to changing beliefs while anticipating future certainty. We show that existing variants of game-theoretic planning under uncertainty are readily obtained as special cases of contingency games. Through a series of simulated autonomous driving scenarios, we demonstrate that contingency games close the gap between certainty-equivalent games that commit to a single hypothesis and non-contingent multi-hypothesis games that do not account for future uncertainty reduction.

We present the concept of a Generalized Feedback Nash Equilibrium (GFNE) in dynamic games, extending the Feedback Nash Equilibrium concept to games in which players are subject to state and input constraints. We formalize necessary and sufficient conditions for (local) GFNE solutions at the trajectory level, which enable the development of efficient numerical methods for their computation. Specifically, we propose a Newton-style method for finding game trajectories which satisfy necessary conditions for an equilibrium, which can then be checked against sufficiency conditions. We show that the evaluation of the necessary conditions in general requires computing a series of nested, implicitly-defined derivatives, which quickly becomes intractable. To this end, we introduce an approximation to the necessary conditions which is amenable to efficient evaluation, and in turn, computation of solutions. We term the solutions to the approximate necessary conditions Generalized Feedback Quasi-Nash Equilibria (GFQNE), and we introduce numerical methods for their computation. In particular, we develop a Sequential Linear-Quadratic Game approach, in which a LQ local approximation of the game is solved at each iteration. The development of this method relies on the ability to compute a GFNE to inequality- and equality-constrained LQ games, and therefore specific methods for the solution of these special cases are developed in detail. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed solution approach on a dynamic game arising in an autonomous driving application.

Causal phenomena associated with rare events occur across a wide range of engineering problems, such as risk-sensitive safety analysis, accident analysis and prevention, and extreme value theory. However, current methods for causal discovery are often unable to uncover causal links, between random variables in a dynamic setting, that manifest only when the variables first experience low-probability realizations. To address this issue, we introduce a novel statistical independence test on data collected from time-invariant dynamical systems in which rare but consequential events occur. In particular, we exploit the time-invariance of the underlying data to construct a superimposed dataset of the system state before rare events happen at different timesteps. We then design a conditional independence test on the reorganized data. We provide non-asymptotic sample complexity bounds for the consistency of our method, and validate its performance across various simulated and real-world datasets, including incident data collected from the Caltrans Performance Measurement System (PeMS). Code containing the datasets and experiments is publicly available.

Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) algorithms are frequently deployed to support a wide range of robotics applications, such as autonomous navigation in unknown environments, and scene mapping in virtual reality. Many of these applications require autonomous agents to perform SLAM in highly dynamic scenes. To this end, this tutorial extends a recently introduced, unifying optimization-based SLAM backend framework to environments with moving objects and features. Using this framework, we consider a rapprochement of recent advances in dynamic SLAM. Moreover, we present dynamic EKF SLAM: a novel, filtering-based dynamic SLAM algorithm generated from our framework, and prove that it is mathematically equivalent to a direct extension of the classical EKF SLAM algorithm to the dynamic environment setting. Empirical results with simulated data indicate that dynamic EKF SLAM can achieve high localization and mobile object pose estimation accuracy, as well as high map precision, with high efficiency.

In multi-agent dynamic games, the Nash equilibrium state trajectory of each agent is determined by its cost function and the information pattern of the game. However, the cost and trajectory of each agent may be unavailable to the other agents. Prior work on using partial observations to infer the costs in dynamic games assumes an open-loop information pattern. In this work, we demonstrate that the feedback Nash equilibrium concept is more expressive and encodes more complex behavior. It is desirable to develop specific tools for inferring players' objectives in feedback games. Therefore, we consider the dynamic game cost inference problem under the feedback information pattern, using only partial state observations and incomplete trajectory data. To this end, we first propose an inverse feedback game loss function, whose minimizer yields a feedback Nash equilibrium state trajectory closest to the observation data. We characterize the landscape and differentiability of the loss function. Given the difficulty of obtaining the exact gradient, our main contribution is an efficient gradient approximator, which enables a novel inverse feedback game solver that minimizes the loss using first-order optimization. In thorough empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that our algorithm converges reliably and has better robustness and generalization performance than the open-loop baseline method when the observation data reflects a group of players acting in a feedback Nash game.

Robots operating in multi-player settings must simultaneously model the environment and the behavior of human or robotic agents who share that environment. This modeling is often approached using Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM); however, SLAM algorithms usually neglect multi-player interactions. In contrast, the motion planning literature often uses dynamic game theory to explicitly model noncooperative interactions of multiple agents in a known environment with perfect localization. Here, we present GTP-SLAM, a novel, iterative best response-based SLAM algorithm that accurately performs state localization and map reconstruction, while using game theoretic priors to capture the inherent non-cooperative interactions among multiple agents in an uncharted scene. By formulating the underlying SLAM problem as a potential game, we inherit a strong convergence guarantee. Empirical results indicate that, when deployed in a realistic traffic simulation, our approach performs localization and mapping more accurately than a standard bundle adjustment algorithm across a wide range of noise levels.