Chalkiadakis, Georgios
Seldonian Reinforcement Learning for Ad Hoc Teamwork
Zorzi, Edoardo, Castellini, Alberto, Bakopoulos, Leonidas, Chalkiadakis, Georgios, Farinelli, Alessandro
Most offline RL algorithms return optimal policies but do not provide statistical guarantees on undesirable behaviors. This could generate reliability issues in safety-critical applications, such as in some multiagent domains where agents, and possibly humans, need to interact to reach their goals without harming each other. In this work, we propose a novel offline RL approach, inspired by Seldonian optimization, which returns policies with good performance and statistically guaranteed properties with respect to predefined undesirable behaviors. In particular, our focus is on Ad Hoc Teamwork settings, where agents must collaborate with new teammates without prior coordination. Our method requires only a pre-collected dataset, a set of candidate policies for our agent, and a specification about the possible policies followed by the other players -- it does not require further interactions, training, or assumptions on the type and architecture of the policies. We test our algorithm in Ad Hoc Teamwork problems and show that it consistently finds reliable policies while improving sample efficiency with respect to standard ML baselines.
Conditional Max-Sum for Asynchronous Multiagent Decision Making
Troullinos, Dimitrios, Chalkiadakis, Georgios, Papamichail, Ioannis, Papageorgiou, Markos
In this paper we present a novel approach for multiagent decision making in dynamic environments based on Factor Graphs and the Max-Sum algorithm, considering asynchronous variable reassignments and distributed message-passing among agents. Motivated by the challenging domain of lane-free traffic where automated vehicles can communicate and coordinate as agents, we propose a more realistic communication framework for Factor Graph formulations that satisfies the above-mentioned restrictions, along with Conditional Max-Sum: an extension of Max-Sum with a revised message-passing process that is better suited for asynchronous settings. The overall application in lane-free traffic can be viewed as a hybrid system where the Factor Graph formulation undertakes the strategic decision making of vehicles, that of desired lateral alignment in a coordinated manner; and acts on top of a rule-based method we devise that provides a structured representation of the lane-free environment for the factors, while also handling the underlying control of vehicles regarding core operations and safety. Our experimental evaluation showcases the capabilities of the proposed framework in problems with intense coordination needs when compared to a domain-specific baseline without communication, and an increased adeptness of Conditional Max-Sum with respect to the standard algorithm.
A Novel Multiagent Flexibility Aggregation Framework
Orfanoudakis, Stavros, Chalkiadakis, Georgios
The increasing number of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) in the emerging Smart Grid, has created an imminent need for intelligent multiagent frameworks able to utilize these assets efficiently. In this paper, we propose a novel DER aggregation framework, encompassing a multiagent architecture and various types of mechanisms for the effective management and efficient integration of DERs in the Grid. One critical component of our architecture is the Local Flexibility Estimators (LFEs) agents, which are key for offloading the Aggregator from serious or resource-intensive responsibilities -- such as addressing privacy concerns and predicting the accuracy of DER statements regarding their offered demand response services. The proposed framework allows the formation of efficient LFE cooperatives. To this end, we developed and deployed a variety of cooperative member selection mechanisms, including (a) scoring rules, and (b) (deep) reinforcement learning. We use data from the well-known PowerTAC simulator to systematically evaluate our framework. Our experiments verify its effectiveness for incorporating heterogeneous DERs into the Grid in an efficient manner. In particular, when using the well-known probabilistic prediction accuracy-incentivizing CRPS scoring rule as a selection mechanism, our framework results in increased average payments for participants, when compared with traditional commercial aggregators.
Optimising Long-Term Outcomes using Real-World Fluent Objectives: An Application to Football
Beal, Ryan, Chalkiadakis, Georgios, Norman, Timothy J., Ramchurn, Sarvapali D.
In this paper, we present a novel approach for optimising long-term tactical and strategic decision-making in football (soccer) by encapsulating events in a league environment across a given time frame. We model the teams' objectives for a season and track how these evolve as games unfold to give a fluent objective that can aid in decision-making games. We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo and deep learning-based algorithms that make use of the fluent objectives in order to learn from prior games and other games in the environment and increase the teams' long-term performance. Simulations of our approach using real-world datasets from 760 matches shows that by using optimised tactics with our fluent objective and prior games, we can on average increase teams mean expected finishing distribution in the league by up to 35.6%.
AI in Greece: The Case of Research on Linked Geospa al Data
Koubarakis, Manolis (University of Athens) | Vouros, George (University of Piraeus) | Chalkiadakis, Georgios (Technical University of Crete) | Plagianakos, Vassilis (International Hellenic University) | Tjortjis, Christos (University of the Aegean) | Kavallieratou, Ergina (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki) | Vrakas, Dimitris (National Centre for Scientific Research "Demokritos") | Mavridis, Nikolaos (National Centre for Scientific Research "Demokritos") | Petasis, Georgios (University of Ioannina) | Blekas, Konstantinos (National Centre for scientific Research "Demokritos") | Krithara, Anastasia
We survey the AI research carried out in Greece recently. A milestone for AI research in Greece came in 1988, when the Hellenic Artificial Intelligence Society (EETN) was founded as a nonprofit scientific organization devoted to organizing and promoting AI research in Greece and abroad. EETN is an affiliated society of the European Association for Artificial Intelligence (EurAI, formerly known as ECCAI). One of the many roles of EETN is the organization of conferences, workshops, summer schools, and other events, such as the Hellenic Conference on Artificial Intelligence (SETN). The first SETN was Science with a team well grounded in KR.
Towards Optimal Solar Tracking: A Dynamic Programming Approach
Panagopoulos, Athanasios Aris (University of Southampton, UK) | Chalkiadakis, Georgios (Technical University of Crete) | Jennings, Nicholas Robert (University of Southampton)
The power output of photovoltaic systems (PVS) increases with the use of effective and efficient solar tracking techniques. However, current techniques suffer from several drawbacks in their tracking policy: (i) they usually do not consider the forecasted or prevailing weather conditions; even when they do, they (ii) rely on complex closed-loop controllers and sophisticated instruments; and (iii) typically, they do not take the energy consumption of the trackers into account. In this paper, we propose a policy iteration method (along with specialized variants), which is able to calculate near-optimal trajectories for effective and efficient day-ahead solar tracking, based on weather forecasts coming from on-line providers. To account for the energy needs of the tracking system, the technique employs a novel and generic consumption model. Our simulations show that the proposed methods can increase the power output of a PVS considerably, when compared to standard solar tracking techniques.
Cooperative Virtual Power Plant Formation Using Scoring Rules
Robu, Valentin (University of Southampton) | Kota, Ramachandra (Secure Meters Ltd., Winchester) | Chalkiadakis, Georgios (Technical University of Crete) | Rogers, Alex (University of Southampton) | Jennings, Nicholas R. (University of Southampton)
Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are fast emerging as a suitable means of integrating small and distributed energy resources (DERs), like wind and solar, into the electricity supply network (Grid). VPPs are formed via the aggregation of a large number of such DERs, so that they exhibit the characteristics of a traditional generator in terms of predictability and robustness. In this work, we promote the formation of such "cooperative'' VPPs (CVPPs) using multi-agent technology. In particular, we design a payment mechanism that encourages DERs to join CVPPs with large overall production. Our method is based on strictly proper scoring rules and incentivises the provision of accurate predictions from the CVPPs---and in turn, the member DERs---which aids in the planning of the supply schedule at the Grid. We empirically evaluate our approach using the real-world setting of 16 commercial wind farms in the UK. We show that our mechanism incentivises real DERs to form CVPPs, and outperforms the current state of the art payment mechanism developed for this problem.
Competing with Humans at Fantasy Football: Team Formation in Large Partially-Observable Domains
Matthews, Tim (University of Southampton) | Ramchurn, Sarvapali D. (University of Southampton) | Chalkiadakis, Georgios (Technical University of Crete)
We present the first real-world benchmark for sequentially-optimal team formation, working within the framework of a class of online football prediction games known as Fantasy Football. We model the problem as a Bayesian reinforcement learning one, where the action space is exponential in the number of players and where the decision maker's beliefs are over multiple characteristics of each footballer. We then exploit domain knowledge to construct computationally tractable solution techniques in order to build a competitive automated Fantasy Football manager. Thus, we are able to establish the baseline performance in this domain, even without complete information on footballers' performances (accessible to human managers), showing that our agent is able to rank at around the top percentile when pitched against 2.5M human players.
Computational Aspects of Cooperative Game Theory
Chalkiadakis, Georgios, Elkind, Edith, Wooldridge, Michael
Our aim in this book is to present a survey of work on the computational aspects of cooperative game theory. We begin by formally defining transferable utility games in characteristic function form, and introducing key solution concepts such as the core and the Shapley value. We then discuss two major issues: identifying compact representations for games, and efficiently computing solution concepts for games. ISBN 9781608456529, 168 pages.