Although neural networks are powerful function approximators, the underlying modelling assumptions ultimately define the likelihood and thus the hypothesis class they are parameterizing. In classification, these assumptions are minimal as the commonly employed softmax is capable of representing any categorical distribution. In regression, however, restrictive assumptions on the type of continuous distribution to be realized are typically placed, like the dominant choice of training via mean-squared error and its underlying Gaussianity assumption. Recently, modelling advances allow to be agnostic to the type of continuous distribution to be modelled, granting regression the flexibility of classification models. While past studies stress the benefit of such flexible regression models in terms of performance, here we study the effect of the model choice on uncertainty estimation. We highlight that under model misspecification, aleatoric uncertainty is not properly captured, and that a Bayesian treatment of a misspecified model leads to unreliable epistemic uncertainty estimates. Overall, our study provides an overview on how modelling choices in regression may influence uncertainty estimation and thus any downstream decision making process.

Continual Learning (CL) algorithms have recently received a lot of attention as they attempt to overcome the need to train with an i.i.d. sample from some unknown target data distribution. Building on prior work, we study principled ways to tackle the CL problem by adopting a Bayesian perspective and focus on continually learning a task-specific posterior distribution via a shared meta-model, a task-conditioned hypernetwork. This approach, which we term Posterior-replay CL, is in sharp contrast to most Bayesian CL approaches that focus on the recursive update of a single posterior distribution. The benefits of our approach are (1) an increased flexibility to model solutions in weight space and therewith less susceptibility to task dissimilarity, (2) access to principled task-specific predictive uncertainty estimates, that can be used to infer task identity during test time and to detect task boundaries during training, and (3) the ability to revisit and update task-specific posteriors in a principled manner without requiring access to past data. The proposed framework is versatile, which we demonstrate using simple posterior approximations (such as Gaussians) as well as powerful, implicit distributions modelled via a neural network. We illustrate the conceptual advance of our framework on low-dimensional problems and show performance gains on computer vision benchmarks.

While a diverse collection of continual learning (CL) methods has been proposed to prevent catastrophic forgetting, a thorough investigation of their effectiveness for processing sequential data with recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is lacking. Here, we provide the first comprehensive evaluation of established CL methods on a variety of sequential data benchmarks. Specifically, we shed light on the particularities that arise when applying weight-importance methods, such as elastic weight consolidation, to RNNs. In contrast to feedforward networks, RNNs iteratively reuse a shared set of weights and require working memory to process input samples. We show that the performance of weight-importance methods is not directly affected by the length of the processed sequences, but rather by high working memory requirements, which lead to an increased need for stability at the cost of decreased plasticity for learning subsequent tasks. We additionally provide theoretical arguments supporting this interpretation by studying linear RNNs. Our study shows that established CL methods can be successfully ported to the recurrent case, and that a recent regularization approach based on hypernetworks outperforms weight-importance methods, thus emerging as a promising candidate for CL in RNNs. Overall, we provide insights on the differences between CL in feedforward networks and RNNs, while guiding towards effective solutions to tackle CL on sequential data.