We investigate different methods for regularizing quantile regression when predicting either a subset of quantiles or the full inverse CDF. We show that minimizing an expected pinball loss over a continuous distribution of quantiles is a good regularizer even when only predicting a specific quantile. For predicting multiple quantiles, we propose achieving the classic goal of non-crossing quantiles by using deep lattice networks that treat the quantile as a monotonic input feature, and we discuss why monotonicity on other features is an apt regularizer for quantile regression. We show that lattice models enable regularizing the predicted distribution to a location-scale family. Lastly, we propose applying rate constraints to improve the calibration of the quantile predictions on specific subsets of interest and improve fairness metrics. We demonstrate our contributions on simulations, benchmark datasets, and real quantile regression problems.

We investigate machine learning models that can provide diminishing returns and accelerating returns guarantees to capture prior knowledge or policies about how outputs should depend on inputs. We show that one can build flexible, nonlinear, multi-dimensional models using lattice functions with any combination of concavity/convexity and monotonicity constraints on any subsets of features, and compare to new shape-constrained neural networks. We demonstrate on real-world examples that these shape constrained models can provide tuning-free regularization and improve model understandability. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

For many machine learning problems, there are some inputs that are known to be positively (or negatively) related to the output, and in such cases training the model to respect that monotonic relationship can provide regularization, and makes the model more interpretable. However, flexible monotonic functions are computationally challenging to learn beyond a few features. We break through this barrier by learning ensembles of monotonic calibrated interpolated look-up tables (lattices). A key contribution is an automated algorithm for selecting feature subsets for the ensemble base models. We demonstrate that compared to random forests, these ensembles produce similar or better accuracy, while providing guaranteed monotonicity consistent with prior knowledge, smaller model size and faster evaluation.

We investigate machine learning models that can provide diminishing returns and accelerating returns guarantees to capture prior knowledge or policies about how outputs should depend on inputs. We show that one can build flexible, nonlinear, multi-dimensional models using lattice functions with any combination of concavity/convexity and monotonicity constraints on any subsets of features, and compare to new shape-constrained neural networks. We demonstrate on real-world examples that these shape constrained models can provide tuning-free regularization and improve model understandability.

We investigate machine learning models that can provide diminishing returns and accelerating returns guarantees to capture prior knowledge or policies about how outputs should depend on inputs. We show that one can build flexible, nonlinear, multi-dimensional models using lattice functions with any combination of concavity/convexity and monotonicity constraints on any subsets of features, and compare to new shape-constrained neural networks. We demonstrate on real-world examples that these shape constrained models can provide tuning-free regularization and improve model understandability.

We propose learning deep models that are monotonic with respect to a user-specified set of inputs by alternating layers of linear embeddings, ensembles of lattices, and calibrators (piecewise linear functions), with appropriate constraints for monotonicity, and jointly training the resulting network. We implement the layers and projections with new computational graph nodes in TensorFlow and use the Adam optimizer and batched stochastic gradients. Experiments on benchmark and real-world datasets show that six-layer monotonic deep lattice networks achieve state-of-the art performance for classification and regression with monotonicity guarantees.

We propose learning deep models that are monotonic with respect to a user-specified set of inputs by alternating layers of linear embeddings, ensembles of lattices, and calibrators (piecewise linear functions), with appropriate constraints for monotonicity, and jointly training the resulting network. We implement the layers and projections with new computational graph nodes in TensorFlow and use the ADAM optimizer and batched stochastic gradients. Experiments on benchmark and real-world datasets show that six-layer monotonic deep lattice networks achieve state-of-the art performance for classification and regression with monotonicity guarantees.

For many machine learning problems, there are some inputs that are known to be positively (or negatively) related to the output, and in such cases training the model to respect that monotonic relationship can provide regularization, and makes the model more interpretable. However, flexible monotonic functions are computationally challenging to learn beyond a few features. We break through this barrier by learning ensembles of monotonic calibrated interpolated look-up tables (lattices). A key contribution is an automated algorithm for selecting feature subsets for the ensemble base models. We demonstrate that compared to random forests, these ensembles produce similar or better accuracy, while providing guaranteed monotonicity consistent with prior knowledge, smaller model size and faster evaluation.

Practical applications of machine learning often involve successive training iterations with changes to features and training examples. Ideally, changes in the output of any new model should only be improvements (wins) over the previous iteration, but in practice the predictions may change neutrally for many examples, resulting in extra net-zero wins and losses, referred to as unnecessary churn. These changes in the predictions are problematic for usability for some applications, and make it harder and more expensive to measure if a change is statistically significant positive. In this paper, we formulate the problem and present a stabilization operator to regularize a classifier towards a previous classifier. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo stabilization operator to produce a model with more consistent predictions without adversely affecting accuracy. We investigate the properties of the proposal with theoretical analysis. Experiments on benchmark datasets for different classification algorithms demonstrate the method and the resulting reduction in churn.