Out-of-Distribution detection between dataset pairs has been extensively explored with generative models. We show that likelihood-based Out-of-Distribution detection can be extended to diffusion models by leveraging the fact that they, like other likelihood-based generative models, are dramatically affected by the input sample complexity. Currently, all Out-of-Distribution detection methods with Diffusion Models are reconstruction-based. We propose a new likelihood ratio for Out-of-Distribution detection with Deep Denoising Diffusion Models, which we call the Complexity Corrected Likelihood Ratio. Our likelihood ratio is constructed using Evidence Lower-Bound evaluations from an individual model at various noising levels. We present results that are comparable to state-of-the-art Out-of-Distribution detection methods with generative models.

This paper outlines the winning solutions employed in addressing the MUAD uncertainty quantification challenge held at ICCV 2023. The challenge was centered around semantic segmentation in urban environments, with a particular focus on natural adversarial scenarios. The report presents the results of 19 submitted entries, with numerous techniques drawing inspiration from cutting-edge uncertainty quantification methodologies presented at prominent conferences in the fields of computer vision and machine learning and journals over the past few years. Within this document, the challenge is introduced, shedding light on its purpose and objectives, which primarily revolved around enhancing the robustness of semantic segmentation in urban scenes under varying natural adversarial conditions. The report then delves into the top-performing solutions. Moreover, the document aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the diverse solutions deployed by all participants. By doing so, it seeks to offer readers a deeper insight into the array of strategies that can be leveraged to effectively handle the inherent uncertainties associated with autonomous driving and semantic segmentation, especially within urban environments.

Objective: This paper investigates how generative models, trained on ground-truth images, can be used \changes{as} priors for inverse problems, penalizing reconstructions far from images the generator can produce. The aim is that learned regularization will provide complex data-driven priors to inverse problems while still retaining the control and insight of a variational regularization method. Moreover, unsupervised learning, without paired training data, allows the learned regularizer to remain flexible to changes in the forward problem such as noise level, sampling pattern or coil sensitivities in MRI. Approach: We utilize variational autoencoders (VAEs) that generate not only an image but also a covariance uncertainty matrix for each image. The covariance can model changing uncertainty dependencies caused by structure in the image, such as edges or objects, and provides a new distance metric from the manifold of learned images. Main results: We evaluate these novel generative regularizers on retrospectively sub-sampled real-valued MRI measurements from the fastMRI dataset. We compare our proposed learned regularization against other unlearned regularization approaches and unsupervised and supervised deep learning methods. Significance: Our results show that the proposed method is competitive with other state-of-the-art methods and behaves consistently with changing sampling patterns and noise levels.

Recent works have demonstrated that it is possible to reconstruct training images and their labels from gradients of an image-classification model when its architecture is known. Unfortunately, there is still an incomplete theoretical understanding of the efficacy and failure of these gradient-leakage attacks. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to analyse training-data leakage from gradients that draws insights from both analytic and optimisation-based gradient-leakage attacks. We formulate the reconstruction problem as solving a linear system from each layer iteratively, accompanied by corrections using gradient matching. Under this framework, we claim that the solubility of the reconstruction problem is primarily determined by that of the linear system at each layer. As a result, we are able to partially attribute the leakage of the training data in a deep network to its architecture. We also propose a metric to measure the level of security of a deep learning model against gradient-based attacks on the training data.

In federated learning [6] of deep learning models for supervised tasks such as image classification and segmentation, gradients from each participant are shared either with another participant or are aggregated at a central server. In many applications of federated learning, the privacy of the training data will need to be protected and we want to obtain guarantees that a malicious participant will not be able to recover fully the training data from other participants, with shared gradients and knowledge of the model architecture. The guarantee will be indispensable in removing the barriers for applying federated learning in tasks such as image segmentations in film post-production where the training data are usually under strict IP protections. In this scenario, it is the training data that needs to be protected, rather than the information we can infer about them. In order to develop protection mechanisms, an appropriate understanding of the source of leakage of the training data is needed. For this work, we are concerned with the following question: for a deep learning model performing image classifications, what determines the success of reconstructing the training data given its label, its gradients from training, and the model architecture? We will focus on the case when we aim to reconstruct a single target image with an untrained model. Although our work was inspired by R-GAP [10], our method COPA (combined optimisation attack) provides a more general theoretical framework to training-data reconstructions, particularly for convolutional layers. Compared with DLG [11], COPA provides more insight to the mechanism of training-data leakage through a more informative formulation of the objective function, making it clearer the source of constraints.

Multi-task learning requires accurate identification of the correlations between tasks. In real-world time-series, tasks are rarely perfectly temporally aligned; traditional multi-task models do not account for this and subsequent errors in correlation estimation will result in poor predictive performance and uncertainty quantification. We introduce a method that automatically accounts for temporal misalignment in a unified generative model that improves predictive performance. Our method uses Gaussian processes (GPs) to model the correlations both within and between the tasks. Building on the previous work by Kazlauskaiteet al. [2019], we include a separate monotonic warp of the input data to model temporal misalignment. In contrast to previous work, we formulate a lower bound that accounts for uncertainty in both the estimates of the warping process and the underlying functions. Also, our new take on a monotonic stochastic process, with efficient path-wise sampling for the warp functions, allows us to perform full Bayesian inference in the model rather than MAP estimates. Missing data experiments, on synthetic and real time-series, demonstrate the advantages of accounting for misalignments (vs standard unaligned method) as well as modelling the uncertainty in the warping process(vs baseline MAP alignment approach).

We present a novel approach to Bayesian inference and general Bayesian computation that is defined through a recursive partitioning of the sample space. It does not rely on gradients, nor require any problem-specific tuning, and is asymptotically exact for any density function with a bounded domain. The output is an approximation to the whole density function including the normalization constant, via partitions organized in efficient data structures. This allows for evidence estimation, as well as approximate posteriors that allow for fast sampling and fast evaluations of the density. It shows competitive performance to recent state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world problem examples including parameter inference for gravitational-wave physics.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions, and fitting a GP to the data implies computing the posterior distribution of the functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) [Damianou:2013] should allow us to compute the posterior distribution of compositions of multiple functions giving rise to the observations. However, exact Bayesian inference is usually intractable for DGPs, motivating the use of various approximations. We show that the simplifying assumptions for a common type of Variational inference approximation imply that all but one layer of a DGP collapse to a deterministic transformation. We argue that such an inference scheme is suboptimal, not taking advantage of the potential of the model to discover the compositional structure in the data, and propose possible modifications addressing this issue.

We present an approach to Bayesian Optimization that allows for robust search strategies over a large class of challenging functions. Our method is motivated by the belief that the trends useful to exploit in search of the optimum typically are a subset of the characteristics of the true objective function. At the core of our approach is the use of a Latent Gaussian Process Regression model that allows us to modulate the input domain with an orthogonal latent space. Using this latent space we can encapsulate local information about each observed data point that can be used to guide the search problem. We show experimentally that our method can be used to significantly improve performance on challenging benchmarks.

We propose a new framework of imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian non-parametric setting. Our approach is based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations [Hedge, 2019]. We derive a non-parametric model of monotonic functions that allows for interpretable priors and principled quantification of hierarchical uncertainty. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model by providing competitive results to other probabilistic models of monotonic functions on a number of benchmark functions. In addition, we consider the utility of a monotonic constraint in hierarchical probabilistic models, such as deep Gaussian processes. These typically suffer difficulties in modelling and propagating uncertainties throughout the hierarchy that can lead to hidden layers collapsing to point estimates. We address this by constraining hidden layers to be monotonic and present novel procedures for learning and inference that maintain uncertainty. We illustrate the capacity and versatility of the proposed framework on the task of temporal alignment of time-series data where it is beneficial to preserve the uncertainty in the temporal warpings.