When considering the opening part of 1800 short stories, we find that the first dozen paragraphs of the average narrative follow an action principle as defined in arXiv:2309.06600. When the order of the paragraphs is shuffled, the average no longer exhibits this property. The findings show that there is a preferential direction we take in semantic space when starting a story, possibly related to a common Western storytelling tradition as implied by Aristotle in Poetics.

There is increasing evidence that human activity in general, and narrative in particular, can be treated as a dynamical system in the physics sense; a system whose evolution is described by an action integral, such that the average of all possible paths from point A to point B is given by the extremum of the action. We create by construction three such paths by averaging about 500 different narratives, and we show that the average path is consistent with an action principle.

We introduce a novel probabilistic tracking algorithm that incorporates combinatorial data association constraints and model-based track management using variational Bayes. We use a Bethe entropy approximation to incorporate data association constraints that are often ignored in previous probabilistic tracking algorithms. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on radar tracking and computer vision problems. The field of tracking is broad and possesses many applications, particularly in radar/sonar [1], robotics [14], and computer vision [3]. Consider the following problem: A radar is tracking a flying object, referred to as atarget, using measurements of range, bearing, and elevation; it may also have Doppler measurements of radial velocity.

The Bayesian online change point detection (BOCPD) algorithm provides an efficient way to do exact inference when the parameters of an underlying model may suddenly change over time. BOCPD requires computation of the underlying model's posterior predictives, which can only be computed online in $O(1)$ time and memory for exponential family models. We develop variational approximations to the posterior on change point times (formulated as run lengths) for efficient inference when the underlying model is not in the exponential family, and does not have tractable posterior predictive distributions. In doing so, we develop improvements to online variational inference. We apply our methodology to a tracking problem using radar data with a signal-to-noise feature that is Rice distributed. We also develop a variational method for inferring the parameters of the (non-exponential family) Rice distribution.