Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, $+4K$, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

Several fundamental problems in science and engineering consist of global optimization tasks involving unknown high-dimensional (black-box) functions that map a set of controllable variables to the outcomes of an expensive experiment. Bayesian Optimization (BO) techniques are known to be effective in tackling global optimization problems using a relatively small number objective function evaluations, but their performance suffers when dealing with high-dimensional outputs. To overcome the major challenge of dimensionality, here we propose a deep learning framework for BO and sequential decision making based on bootstrapped ensembles of neural architectures with randomized priors. Using appropriate architecture choices, we show that the proposed framework can approximate functional relationships between design variables and quantities of interest, even in cases where the latter take values in high-dimensional vector spaces or even infinite-dimensional function spaces. In the context of BO, we augmented the proposed probabilistic surrogates with re-parameterized Monte Carlo approximations of multiple-point (parallel) acquisition functions, as well as methodological extensions for accommodating black-box constraints and multi-fidelity information sources. We test the proposed framework against state-of-the-art methods for BO and demonstrate superior performance across several challenging tasks with high-dimensional outputs, including a constrained multi-fidelity optimization task involving shape optimization of rotor blades in turbo-machinery.

This paper presents a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian systems identification from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and Gaussian Process priors over the observed system states. This allows us to exploit temporal correlations in the observed data, and efficiently infer posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty. Moreover, the use of sparsity-promoting priors such as the Finnish Horseshoe for free model parameters enables the discovery of interpretable and parsimonious representations for the underlying latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GP-NODE method including predator-prey systems, systems biology, and a 50-dimensional human motion dynamical system. Taken together, our findings put forth a novel, flexible and robust workflow for data-driven model discovery under uncertainty. All code and data accompanying this manuscript are available online at \url{https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/GP-NODEs}.