Depth completion upgrades sparse depth measurements into dense depth maps guided by a conventional image. Existing methods for this highly ill-posed task operate in tightly constrained settings and tend to struggle when applied to images outside the training domain or when the available depth measurements are sparse, irregularly distributed, or of varying density. Inspired by recent advances in monocular depth estimation, we reframe depth completion as an image-conditional depth map generation guided by sparse measurements. Our method, Marigold-DC, builds on a pretrained latent diffusion model for monocular depth estimation and injects the depth observations as test-time guidance via an optimization scheme that runs in tandem with the iterative inference of denoising diffusion. The method exhibits excellent zero-shot generalization across a diverse range of environments and handles even extremely sparse guidance effectively. Our results suggest that contemporary monocular depth priors greatly robustify depth completion: it may be better to view the task as recovering dense depth from (dense) image pixels, guided by sparse depth; rather than as inpainting (sparse) depth, guided by an image. Project website: https://MarigoldDepthCompletion.github.io/

Numerous crucial tasks in real-world decision-making rely on machine learning algorithms with calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident and uncalibrated predictions. Various approaches involve training an ensemble of separate models to quantify the uncertainty related to the model itself, known as epistemic uncertainty. In an explicit implementation, the ensemble approach has high computational cost and high memory requirements. This particular challenge is evident in state-of-the-art neural networks such as transformers, where even a single network is already demanding in terms of compute and memory. Consequently, efforts are made to emulate the ensemble model without actually instantiating separate ensemble members, referred to as implicit ensembling. We introduce LoRA-Ensemble, a parameter-efficient deep ensemble method for self-attention networks, which is based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). Initially developed for efficient LLM fine-tuning, we extend LoRA to an implicit ensembling approach. By employing a single pre-trained self-attention network with weights shared across all members, we train member-specific low-rank matrices for the attention projections. Our method exhibits superior calibration compared to explicit ensembles and achieves similar or better accuracy across various prediction tasks and datasets.

The ability to estimate epistemic uncertainty is often crucial when deploying machine learning in the real world, but modern methods often produce overconfident, uncalibrated uncertainty predictions. A common approach to quantify epistemic uncertainty, usable across a wide class of prediction models, is to train a model ensemble. In a naive implementation, the ensemble approach has high computational cost and high memory demand. This challenges in particular modern deep learning, where even a single deep network is already demanding in terms of compute and memory, and has given rise to a number of attempts to emulate the model ensemble without actually instantiating separate ensemble members. We introduce FiLM-Ensemble, a deep, implicit ensemble method based on the concept of Feature-wise Linear Modulation (FiLM). That technique was originally developed for multi-task learning, with the aim of decoupling different tasks. We show that the idea can be extended to uncertainty quantification: by modulating the network activations of a single deep network with FiLM, one obtains a model ensemble with high diversity, and consequently well-calibrated estimates of epistemic uncertainty, with low computational overhead in comparison. Empirically, FiLM-Ensemble outperforms other implicit ensemble methods, and it and comes very close to the upper bound of an explicit ensemble of networks (sometimes even beating it), at a fraction of the memory cost.

Monitoring and managing Earth's forests in an informed manner is an important requirement for addressing challenges like biodiversity loss and climate change. While traditional in situ or aerial campaigns for forest assessments provide accurate data for analysis at regional level, scaling them to entire countries and beyond with high temporal resolution is hardly possible. In this work, we propose a method based on deep ensembles that densely estimates forest structure variables at country-scale with 10-meter resolution, using freely available satellite imagery as input. Our method jointly transforms Sentinel-2 optical images and Sentinel-1 synthetic-aperture radar images into maps of five different forest structure variables: 95th height percentile, mean height, density, Gini coefficient, and fractional cover. We train and test our model on reference data from 41 airborne laser scanning missions across Norway and demonstrate that it is able to generalize to unseen test regions, achieving normalized mean absolute errors between 11% and 15%, depending on the variable. Our work is also the first to propose a variant of so-called Bayesian deep learning to densely predict multiple forest structure variables with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates from satellite imagery. The uncertainty information increases the trustworthiness of the model and its suitability for downstream tasks that require reliable confidence estimates as a basis for decision making. We present an extensive set of experiments to validate the accuracy of the predicted maps as well as the quality of the predicted uncertainties. To demonstrate scalability, we provide Norway-wide maps for the five forest structure variables.

Computer-aided drug discovery is an essential component of modern drug development. Therein, deep learning has become an important tool for rapid screening of billions of molecules in silico for potential hits containing desired chemical features. Despite its importance, substantial challenges persist in training these models, such as severe class imbalance, high decision thresholds, and lack of ground truth labels in some datasets. In this work we argue in favor of directly optimizing the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) in such cases, due to its robustness to class imbalance, its ability to compromise over different decision thresholds, certain freedom to influence the relative weights in this compromise, fidelity to typical benchmarking measures, and equivalence to positive/unlabeled learning. We also propose new training schemes (coherent mini-batch arrangement, and usage of out-of-batch samples) for cost functions based on the ROC, as well as a cost function based on the logAUC metric that facilitates early enrichment (i.e. improves performance at high decision thresholds, as often desired when synthesizing predicted hit compounds). We demonstrate that these approaches outperform standard deep learning approaches on a series of PubChem high-throughput screening datasets that represent realistic and diverse drug discovery campaigns on major drug target families.