Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. These guarantees fail to hold in the face of distribution shift, which is precisely when reliable uncertainty quantification can be most useful. We propose a novel algorithm for constructing prediction sets with PAC guarantees in the label shift setting. This method estimates the predicted probabilities of the classes in a target domain, as well as the confusion matrix, then propagates uncertainty in these estimates through a Gaussian elimination algorithm to compute confidence intervals for importance weights. Finally, it uses these intervals to construct prediction sets. We evaluate our approach on five datasets: the CIFAR-10, ChestX-Ray and Entity-13 image datasets, the tabular CDC Heart dataset, and the AGNews text dataset. Our algorithm satisfies the PAC guarantee while producing smaller, more informative, prediction sets compared to several baselines.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have excelled as high-level semantic planners for sequential decision-making tasks. However, harnessing them to learn complex low-level manipulation tasks, such as dexterous pen spinning, remains an open problem. We bridge this fundamental gap and present Eureka, a human-level reward design algorithm powered by LLMs. Eureka exploits the remarkable zero-shot generation, code-writing, and in-context improvement capabilities of state-of-the-art LLMs, such as GPT-4, to perform evolutionary optimization over reward code. The resulting rewards can then be used to acquire complex skills via reinforcement learning. Without any task-specific prompting or pre-defined reward templates, Eureka generates reward functions that outperform expert human-engineered rewards. In a diverse suite of 29 open-source RL environments that include 10 distinct robot morphologies, Eureka outperforms human experts on 83% of the tasks, leading to an average normalized improvement of 52%. The generality of Eureka also enables a new gradient-free in-context learning approach to reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), readily incorporating human inputs to improve the quality and the safety of the generated rewards without model updating. Finally, using Eureka rewards in a curriculum learning setting, we demonstrate for the first time, a simulated Shadow Hand capable of performing pen spinning tricks, adeptly manipulating a pen in circles at rapid speed.

Real-world robotic tasks stretch over extended horizons and encompass multiple stages. Learning long-horizon manipulation tasks, however, is a long-standing challenge, and demands decomposing the overarching task into several manageable subtasks to facilitate policy learning and generalization to unseen tasks. Prior task decomposition methods require task-specific knowledge, are computationally intensive, and cannot readily be applied to new tasks. To address these shortcomings, we propose Universal Visual Decomposer (UVD), an off-the-shelf task decomposition method for visual long horizon manipulation using pre-trained visual representations designed for robotic control. At a high level, UVD discovers subgoals by detecting phase shifts in the embedding space of the pre-trained representation. Operating purely on visual demonstrations without auxiliary information, UVD can effectively extract visual subgoals embedded in the videos, while incurring zero additional training cost on top of standard visuomotor policy training. Goal-conditioned policies learned with UVD-discovered subgoals exhibit significantly improved compositional generalization at test time to unseen tasks. Furthermore, UVD-discovered subgoals can be used to construct goal-based reward shaping that jump-starts temporally extended exploration for reinforcement learning. We extensively evaluate UVD on both simulation and real-world tasks, and in all cases, UVD substantially outperforms baselines across imitation and reinforcement learning settings on in-domain and out-of-domain task sequences alike, validating the clear advantage of automated visual task decomposition within the simple, compact UVD framework.

Existing approaches to algorithmic fairness aim to ensure equitable outcomes if human decision-makers comply perfectly with algorithmic decisions. However, perfect compliance with the algorithm is rarely a reality or even a desirable outcome in human-AI collaboration. Yet, recent studies have shown that selective compliance with fair algorithms can amplify discrimination relative to the prior human policy. As a consequence, ensuring equitable outcomes requires fundamentally different algorithmic design principles that ensure robustness to the decision-maker's (a priori unknown) compliance pattern. We define the notion of compliance-robustly fair algorithmic recommendations that are guaranteed to (weakly) improve fairness in decisions, regardless of the human's compliance pattern. We propose a simple optimization strategy to identify the best performance-improving compliance-robustly fair policy. However, we show that it may be infeasible to design algorithmic recommendations that are simultaneously fair in isolation, compliance-robustly fair, and more accurate than the human policy; thus, if our goal is to improve the equity and accuracy of human-AI collaboration, it may not be desirable to enforce traditional fairness constraints.

Although conversational AIs have demonstrated fantastic performance, they often generate incorrect information, or hallucinations. Retrieval augmented generation has emerged as a promising solution to reduce these hallucinations. However, these techniques still cannot guarantee correctness. Focusing on question answering, we propose a framework that can provide statistical guarantees for the retrieval augmented question answering system by combining conformal prediction and global testing. In addition, we use Bayesian optimization to choose hyperparameters of the global test to maximize the performance of the system. Our empirical results on the Natural Questions dataset demonstrate that our method can provide the desired coverage guarantee while minimizing the average prediction set size.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

Compositional reinforcement learning is a promising approach for training policies to perform complex long-horizon tasks. Typically, a high-level task is decomposed into a sequence of subtasks and a separate policy is trained to perform each subtask. In this paper, we focus on the problem of training subtask policies in a way that they can be used to perform any task; here, a task is given by a sequence of subtasks. We aim to maximize the worst-case performance over all tasks as opposed to the average-case performance. We formulate the problem as a two agent zero-sum game in which the adversary picks the sequence of subtasks. We propose two RL algorithms to solve this game: one is an adaptation of existing multi-agent RL algorithms to our setting and the other is an asynchronous version which enables parallel training of subtask policies. We evaluate our approach on two multi-task environments with continuous states and actions and demonstrate that our algorithms outperform state-of-the-art baselines.

We present Language-Image Value learning (LIV), a unified objective for vision-language representation and reward learning from action-free videos with text annotations. Exploiting a novel connection between dual reinforcement learning and mutual information contrastive learning, the LIV objective trains a multi-modal representation that implicitly encodes a universal value function for tasks specified as language or image goals. We use LIV to pre-train the first control-centric vision-language representation from large human video datasets such as EpicKitchen. Given only a language or image goal, the pre-trained LIV model can assign dense rewards to each frame in videos of unseen robots or humans attempting that task in unseen environments. Further, when some target domain-specific data is available, the same objective can be used to fine-tune and improve LIV and even other pre-trained representations for robotic control and reward specification in that domain. In our experiments on several simulated and real-world robot environments, LIV models consistently outperform the best prior input state representations for imitation learning, as well as reward specification methods for policy synthesis. Our results validate the advantages of joint vision-language representation and reward learning within the unified, compact LIV framework.

The difficulty of manually specifying reward functions has led to an interest in using linear temporal logic (LTL) to express objectives for reinforcement learning (RL). However, LTL has the downside that it is sensitive to small perturbations in the transition probabilities, which prevents probably approximately correct (PAC) learning without additional assumptions. Time discounting provides a way of removing this sensitivity, while retaining the high expressivity of the logic. We study the use of discounted LTL for policy synthesis in Markov decision processes with unknown transition probabilities, and show how to reduce discounted LTL to discounted-sum reward via a reward machine when all discount factors are identical.

Inverse protein folding -- the task of predicting a protein sequence from its backbone atom coordinates -- has surfaced as an important problem in the "top down", de novo design of proteins. Contemporary approaches have cast this problem as a conditional generative modelling problem, where a large generative model over protein sequences is conditioned on the backbone. While these generative models very rapidly produce promising sequences, independent draws from generative models may fail to produce sequences that reliably fold to the correct backbone. Furthermore, it is challenging to adapt pure generative approaches to other settings, e.g., when constraints exist. In this paper, we cast the problem of improving generated inverse folds as an optimization problem that we solve using recent advances in "deep" or "latent space" Bayesian optimization. Our approach consistently produces protein sequences with greatly reduced structural error to the target backbone structure as measured by TM score and RMSD while using fewer computational resources. Additionally, we demonstrate other advantages of an optimization-based approach to the problem, such as the ability to handle constraints.