Predicting the responses of a cell under perturbations may bring important benefits to drug discovery and personalized therapeutics. In this work, we propose a novel graph variational Bayesian causal inference framework to predict a cell's gene expressions under counterfactual perturbations (perturbations that this cell did not factually receive), leveraging information representing biological knowledge in the form of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) to aid individualized cellular response predictions. Aiming at a data-adaptive GRN, we also developed an adjacency matrix updating technique for graph convolutional networks and used it to refine GRNs during pre-training, which generated more insights on gene relations and enhanced model performance. Additionally, we propose a robust estimator within our framework for the asymptotically efficient estimation of marginal perturbation effect, which is yet to be carried out in previous works. With extensive experiments, we exhibited the advantage of our approach over state-of-the-art deep learning models for individual response prediction. Studying a cell's response to genetic, chemical, and physical perturbations is fundamental in understanding various biological processes and can lead to important applications such as drug discovery and personalized therapies.

The problem of how to genetically modify cells in order to maximize a certain cellular phenotype has taken center stage in drug development over the last few years (with, for example, genetically edited CAR-T, CAR-NK, and CAR-NKT cells entering cancer clinical trials). Exhausting the search space for all possible genetic edits (perturbations) or combinations thereof is infeasible due to cost and experimental limitations. This work provides a theoretically sound framework for iteratively exploring the space of perturbations in pooled batches in order to maximize a target phenotype under an experimental budget. Inspired by this application domain, we study the problem of batch query bandit optimization and introduce the Optimistic Arm Elimination ($\mathrm{OAE}$) principle designed to find an almost optimal arm under different functional relationships between the queries (arms) and the outputs (rewards). We analyze the convergence properties of $\mathrm{OAE}$ by relating it to the Eluder dimension of the algorithm's function class and validate that $\mathrm{OAE}$ outperforms other strategies in finding optimal actions in experiments on simulated problems, public datasets well-studied in bandit contexts, and in genetic perturbation datasets when the regression model is a deep neural network. OAE also outperforms the benchmark algorithms in 3 of 4 datasets in the GeneDisco experimental planning challenge.

Estimating an individual's potential outcomes under counterfactual treatments is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, impulse responses, human faces) and covariates are relatively limited. In this case, to construct one's outcome under a counterfactual treatment, it is crucial to leverage individual information contained in its observed factual outcome on top of the covariates. We propose a deep variational Bayesian framework that rigorously integrates two main sources of information for outcome construction under a counterfactual treatment: one source is the individual features embedded in the high-dimensional factual outcome; the other source is the response distribution of similar subjects (subjects with the same covariates) that factually received this treatment of interest.