Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) present significant risks and opportunities, requiring improved governance to mitigate societal harms and promote equitable benefits. Current incentive structures and regulatory delays may hinder responsible AI development and deployment, particularly in light of the transformative potential of large language models (LLMs). To address these challenges, we propose developing the following three contributions: (1) a large multimodal text and economic-timeseries foundation model that integrates economic and natural language policy data for enhanced forecasting and decision-making, (2) algorithmic mechanisms for eliciting diverse and representative perspectives, enabling the creation of data-driven public policy recommendations, and (3) an AI-driven web platform for supporting transparent, inclusive, and data-driven policymaking.

The growing power of data science can play a crucial role in addressing social discrimination, necessitating nuanced understanding and effective mitigation strategies of potential biases. Data Science Looks At Discrimination (dsld) is an R and Python package designed to provide users with a comprehensive toolkit of statistical and graphical methods for assessing possible discrimination related to protected groups, such as race, gender, and age. Our software offers techniques for discrimination analysis by identifying and mitigating confounding variables, along with methods for reducing bias in predictive models. In educational settings, dsld offers instructors powerful tools to teach important statistical principles through motivating real world examples of discrimination analysis. The inclusion of an 80-page Quarto book further supports users, from statistics educators to legal professionals, in effectively applying these analytical tools to real world scenarios.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision making across various domains. While numerical data provides a foundation, it often lacks crucial context necessary for accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge or constraints, which can be efficiently communicated through natural language. However, the ability of existing forecasting models to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. By presenting this benchmark, we aim to advance multimodal forecasting, promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/ .

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

We introduce a new model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, designed to flexibly address a range of tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and their combinations. Building on copula theory, we propose a simplified objective for the recently-introduced transformer-based attentional copulas (TACTiS), wherein the number of distributional parameters now scales linearly with the number of variables instead of factorially. The new objective requires the introduction of a training curriculum, which goes hand-in-hand with necessary changes to the original architecture. We show that the resulting model has significantly better training dynamics and achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse real-world forecasting tasks, while maintaining the flexibility of prior work, such as seamless handling of unaligned and unevenly-sampled time series.

The separation between training and deployment of machine learning models implies that not all scenarios encountered in deployment can be anticipated during training, and therefore relying solely on advancements in training has its limits. Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is an important area that stress-tests a model's ability to handle unseen situations: Do models know when they don't know? Existing OOD detection methods either incur extra training steps, additional data or make nontrivial modifications to the trained network. In contrast, in this work, we propose an extremely simple, post-hoc, on-the-fly activation shaping method, ASH, where a large portion (e.g. The shaping is applied at inference time, and does not require any statistics calculated from training data. Experiments show that such a simple treatment enhances in-distribution and out-ofdistribution distinction so as to allow state-of-the-art OOD detection on ImageNet, and does not noticeably deteriorate the in-distribution accuracy. Video, animation and code can be found at: https://andrijazz.github.io/ash. Machine learning works by iteration. We develop better and better training techniques (validated in a closed-loop validation setting) and once a model is trained, we observe problems, shortcomings, pitfalls and misalignment in deployment, which drive us to go back to modify or refine the training process. However, as we enter an era of large models, recent progress is driven heavily by the advancement of scaling, seen on all fronts including the size of models, data, physical hardware as well as team of researchers and engineers (Kaplan et al., 2020; Brown et al., 2020; Ramesh et al., 2022; Saharia et al., 2022; Yu et al., 2022; Zhang et al., 2022). As a result, it is getting more difficult to conduct multiple iterations of the usual train-deployment loop; for that reason post hoc methods that improve model capability without the need to modify training are greatly preferred. Methods like zero-shot learning (Radford et al., 2021), plug-and-play controlling (Dathathri et al., 2020), as well as feature post processing (Guo et al., 2017) leverage post-hoc operations to make general and flexible pretrained models more adaptive to downstream applications. The out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization failure is one of such pitfalls often observed in deployment. The central question around OOD detection is "Do models know when they don't know?"