Next basket recommendation (NBR) is the task of predicting the next set of items based on a sequence of already purchased baskets. It is a recommendation task that has been widely studied, especially in the context of grocery shopping. In next basket recommendation (NBR), it is useful to distinguish between repeat items, i.e., items that a user has consumed before, and explore items, i.e., items that a user has not consumed before. Most NBR work either ignores this distinction or focuses on repeat items. We formulate the next novel basket recommendation (NNBR) task, i.e., the task of recommending a basket that only consists of novel items, which is valuable for both real-world application and NBR evaluation. We evaluate how existing NBR methods perform on the NNBR task and find that, so far, limited progress has been made w.r.t. the NNBR task. To address the NNBR task, we propose a simple bi-directional transformer basket recommendation model (BTBR), which is focused on directly modeling item-to-item correlations within and across baskets instead of learning complex basket representations. To properly train BTBR, we propose and investigate several masking strategies and training objectives: (i) item-level random masking, (ii) item-level select masking, (iii) basket-level all masking, (iv) basket-level explore masking, and (v) joint masking. In addition, an item-basket swapping strategy is proposed to enrich the item interactions within the same baskets. We conduct extensive experiments on three open datasets with various characteristics. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of BTBR and our masking and swapping strategies for the NNBR task. BTBR with a properly selected masking and swapping strategy can substantially improve NNBR performance.

In retail (e.g., grocery stores, apparel shops, online retailers), inventory managers have to balance short-term risk (no items to sell) with long-term-risk (over ordering leading to product waste). This balancing task is made especially hard due to the lack of information about future customer purchases. In this paper, we study the problem of restocking a grocery store's inventory with perishable items over time, from a distributional point of view. The objective is to maximize sales while minimizing waste, with uncertainty about the actual consumption by costumers. This problem is of a high relevance today, given the growing demand for food and the impact of food waste on the environment, the economy, and purchasing power. We frame inventory restocking as a new reinforcement learning task that exhibits stochastic behavior conditioned on the agent's actions, making the environment partially observable. We make two main contributions. First, we introduce a new reinforcement learning environment, RetaiL, based on real grocery store data and expert knowledge. This environment is highly stochastic, and presents a unique challenge for reinforcement learning practitioners. We show that uncertainty about the future behavior of the environment is not handled well by classical supply chain algorithms, and that distributional approaches are a good way to account for the uncertainty. Second, we introduce GTDQN, a distributional reinforcement learning algorithm that learns a generalized Tukey Lambda distribution over the reward space. GTDQN provides a strong baseline for our environment. It outperforms other distributional reinforcement learning approaches in this partially observable setting, in both overall reward and reduction of generated waste.

The goal of a next basket recommendation system is to recommend items for the next basket for a user, based on the sequence of their prior baskets. Recently, a number of methods with complex modules have been proposed that claim state-of-the-art performance. They rarely look into the predicted basket and just provide intuitive reasons for the observed improvements, e.g., better representation, capturing intentions or relations, etc. We provide a novel angle on the evaluation of next basket recommendation (NBR) methods, centered on the distinction between repetition and exploration: the next basket is typically composed of previously consumed items (i.e., repeat items) and new items (i.e, explore items). We propose a set of metrics that measure the repeat/explore ratio and performance of NBR models. Using these new metrics, we analyze the state-of-the-art NBR models. The results of our analysis help to clarify the extent of the actual progress achieved by existing NBR methods as well as the underlying reasons for the improvements. Overall, our work sheds light on the evaluation problem of NBR and provides useful insights into the model design for this task.