Time series prediction problems are becoming increasingly high-dimensional in modern applications, such as climatology and demand forecasting. For example, in the latter problem, the number of items for which demand needs to be forecast might be as large as 50,000. In addition, the data is generally noisy and full of missing values. Thus, modern applications require methods that are highly scalable, and can deal with noisy data in terms of corruptions or missing values. However, classical time series methods usually fall short of handling these issues.

Feature construction is of vital importance in reinforcement learning, as the quality of a value function or policy is largely determined by the corresponding features. Typical deep RL approaches use a linear output layer, which means that deep RL can be interpreted as a feature construction/encoding network followed by linear value function approximation. This paper develops and evaluates a theory of linear feature encoding. We extend theoretical results on feature quality for linear value function approximation from the uncontrolled case to the controlled case. We then develop a supervised linear feature encoding method that is motivated by insights from linear value function approximation theory, as well as empirical successes from deep RL.

We study causal subset selection with Directed Information as the measure of prediction causality. Two typical tasks, causal sensor placement and covariate selection, are correspondingly formulated into cardinality constrained directed information maximizations. To attack the NP-hard problems, we show that the first problem is submodular while not necessarily monotonic. And the second one is nearly'' submodular. To substantiate the idea of approximate submodularity, we introduce a novel quantity, namely submodularity index (SmI), for general set functions.

Neuroscience experiments often require training animals to perform tasks designed to elicit various sensory, cognitive, and motor behaviors. Training typically involves a series of gradual adjustments of stimulus conditions and rewards in order to bring about learning. However, training protocols are usually hand-designed, relying on a combination of intuition, guesswork, and trial-and-error, and often require weeks or months to achieve a desired level of task performance. Here we combine ideas from reinforcement learning and adaptive optimal experimental design to formulate methods for adaptive optimal training of animal behavior. Our work addresses two intriguing problems at once: first, it seeks to infer the learning rules underlying an animal's behavioral changes during training; second, it seeks to exploit these rules to select stimuli that will maximize the rate of learning toward a desired objective.

We propose and study a new class of submodular functions called deep submodular functions (DSFs). We define DSFs and situate them within the broader context of classes of submodular functions in relationship both to various matroid ranks and sums of concave composed with modular functions (SCMs). Notably, we find that DSFs constitute a strictly broader class than SCMs, thus motivating their use, but that they do not comprise all submodular functions. Interestingly, some DSFs can be seen as special cases of certain deep neural networks (DNNs), hence the name. Finally, we provide a method to learn DSFs in a max-margin framework, and offer preliminary results applying this both to synthetic and real-world data instances.

Matrix completion is a basic machine learning problem that has wide applications, especially in collaborative filtering and recommender systems. Simple non-convex optimization algorithms are popular and effective in practice. Despite recent progress in proving various non-convex algorithms converge from a good initial point, it remains unclear why random or arbitrary initialization suffices in practice. We prove that the commonly used non-convex objective function for matrix completion has no spurious local minima --- all local minima must also be global. Therefore, many popular optimization algorithms such as (stochastic) gradient descent can provably solve matrix completion with \textit{arbitrary} initialization in polynomial time.

Predicting the behavior of human participants in strategic settings is an important problem in many domains. Most existing work either assumes that participants are perfectly rational, or attempts to directly model each participant's cognitive processes based on insights from cognitive psychology and experimental economics. In this work, we present an alternative, a deep learning approach that automatically performs cognitive modeling without relying on such expert knowledge. We introduce a novel architecture that allows a single network to generalize across different input and output dimensions by using matrix units rather than scalar units, and show that its performance significantly outperforms that of the previous state of the art, which relies on expert-constructed features.

Many applications of machine learning involve structured output with large domain, where learning of structured predictor is prohibitive due to repetitive calls to expensive inference oracle. In this work, we show that, by decomposing training of Structural Support Vector Machine (SVM) into a series of multiclass SVM problems connected through messages, one can replace expensive structured oracle with Factorwise Maximization Oracle (FMO) that allows efficient implementation of complexity sublinear to the factor domain. A Greedy Direction Method of Multiplier (GDMM) algorithm is proposed to exploit sparsity of messages which guarantees \epsilon sub-optimality after O(log(1/\epsilon)) passes of FMO calls. We conduct experiments on chain-structured problems and fully-connected problems of large output domains. The proposed approach is orders-of-magnitude faster than the state-of-the-art training algorithms for Structural SVM.

We propose a general modeling and inference framework that combines the complementary strengths of probabilistic graphical models and deep learning methods. For inference, we use recognition networks to produce local evidence potentials, then combine them with the model distribution using efficient message-passing algorithms. All components are trained simultaneously with a single stochastic variational inference objective. We illustrate this framework by automatically segmenting and categorizing mouse behavior from raw depth video, and demonstrate several other example models.

Factorial Hidden Markov Models (FHMMs) are powerful models for sequential data but they do not scale well with long sequences. We propose a scalable inference and learning algorithm for FHMMs that draws on ideas from the stochastic variational inference, neural network and copula literatures. Unlike existing approaches, the proposed algorithm requires no message passing procedure among latent variables and can be distributed to a network of computers to speed up learning. Our experiments corroborate that the proposed algorithm does not introduce further approximation bias compared to the proven structured mean-field algorithm, and achieves better performance with long sequences and large FHMMs.