New earthquake probability model may help better predict the next big one

A new model claims to predict when and where the next major earthquake may strike - just days after a 7.8 magnitude quake rocked Turkey and Syria, killing at least 19,000 people. Developed by a team of seismologists and statisticians at Northwestern University, the model takes into account previous earthquakes' specific order and timing rather than just relying on the average time between past earthquakes. This method also explains why earthquakes tend to come in clusters. The team found that faults have'long-term memory,' which means an earthquake did not release all the strain that built up on the fault over time, so some remains after a big earthquake and can cause another. Seismologists have traditionally assumed that big earthquakes on faults are relatively regular and that the next quake will occur after approximately the same amount of time as the previous two.