Using the Future to "Sort Out" the Present: Rankprop and Multitask Learning for Medical Risk Evaluation

This paper presents two methods that can improve generalization on a broad class of problems. This class includes identifying low risk pneumonia patients. The first method, rankprop, tries to learn simple models that support ranking future cases while simultaneously learning to rank the training set. The second, multitask learning, uses lab tests available only during training, as additional target values to bias learning towards a more predictive hidden layer. Experiments using a database of pneumonia patients indicate that together these methods outperform standard backpropagation by 10-50%. Rankprop and MTL are applicable to a large class of problems in which the goal is to learn a relative ranking over the instance space, and where the training data includes features that will not be available at run time. Such problems include identifying higher-risk medical patients as early as possible, identifying lower-risk financial investments, and visual analysis of scenes that become easier to analyze as they are approached in the future. Acknowledgements We thank Greg Cooper, Michael Fine, and other members of the Pitt/CMU Cost-Effective Health Care group for help with the Medis Database. This work was supported by ARPA grant F33615-93-1-1330, NSF grant BES-9315428, Agency for Health Care Policy and Research grant HS06468, and an NSF Graduate Student Fellowship (Baluja).