Interpreting prediction markets: a stochastic approach

We strengthen recent connections between prediction markets and learning byshowing that a natural class of market makers can be understood as performing stochastic mirror descent when trader demands are sequentially drawnfrom a fixed distribution. This provides new insights into how market prices (and price paths) may be interpreted as a summary of the market's belief distribution by relating them to the optimization problem being solved. In particular, we show that under certain conditions the stationary pointof the stochastic process of prices generated by the market is equal to the market's Walrasian equilibrium of classic market analysis. Together, these results suggest how traditional market making mechanisms might be replaced with general purpose learning algorithms while still retaining guaranteesabout their behaviour.