Beyond the Hype Cycle: Quantifying Media Attention to Predict Technology Trends

In a time where we have 3D printed rockets and genome sequencing for 1000, why are our methods for identifying and understanding emerging technology trends so abysmally antiquated? A prime example is in the below graphic of industry analyst estimates of 2 markets -- virtual reality and drones. For some reason, we're forced to settle for the random guesses of the Pundit Industrial Complex. You might compare it to throwing darts, but that would be insulting to darts. Even harder than forecasting the size of a market people already know about is the early identification of emerging technologies you should be aware of.