The One Thing We Can Agree On as Political Polling Begins: Understanding Statistics

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker may be surging as an early favorite for the Republican presidential nomination -- but the numbers show the person leading among potential Iowa caucus-goers often doesn't win. In the Democratic field, Hillary Clinton is the most dominant position ever for a non-incumbent, with odds of clinching the nomination as high as 91 percent. Over at the 538 site launched by statistician Nate Silver, the race is already on to handicap the 2016 presidential contest, a reminder that the season of campaigning, polls, predictions and surveys is descending upon us. Which makes it a perfect time to think about statistics. Even this soon in the game, we'll start to see polling from all sides of the political spectrum, making us ponder which results are valid and which might be biased.