Bayes Theorem: A Primer - Lavanya.ai

Imagine you're sleeping, and you hear strange noises in your front lawn. You're very sleepy, so you hypothesize that the strange noises are being generated by a hungry dinosaur. You think to yourself, 'this is exactly what I would hear if there was a dinosaur outside in my front lawn'. But then as you think more about it, you realize that the likelihood of there actually being a dinosaur in your front lawn is extremely low; whereas the likelihood of hearing strange noises from the front lawn is likely pretty high. So you exhale as you realize that the actual probability of there being a dinosaur in your front lawn, aka your original hypothesis, given the evidence is extremely low.