Overcoming Bias : This AI Boom Will Also Bust

Imagine an innovation in pipes. If this innovation were general, something that made all kinds of pipes cheaper to build and maintain, the total benefits could be large, perhaps even comparable to the total amount we spend on pipes today. And if most of the value of pipe use were in many small uses, then that is where most of these economic gains would be found. In contrast, consider an innovation that only improved the very largest pipes. This innovation might, for example, cost a lot to use per meter of pipe, and so only make sense for the largest pipes.