Supercomputer simulations of California earthquakes could pave the way for better hazard forecasts

Researchers have simulated nearly 500,000 years of California earthquakes in effort to better forecast potential hazards across the state. Large earthquakes pose extreme risks to populated areas, but their activity can be unpredictable; such events tend to be few and far between, and modelling them often relies on uncertain assumptions. A new physics-based model could finally allow for more precise forecasts, using supercomputer simulations to cut out the assumptions and confirm estimates for specific regions. Researchers have simulated nearly 500,000 years of California earthquakes in effort to better forecast potential hazards across the state. 'Whether a big earthquake happens next week or 10 years from now, engineers need to build for the long run,' said lead author Bruce Shaw, a geophysicist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.