Random Guesses Inevitable - Netopia

Choosing „The Inevitable" as a title for one's book makes a clear statement: I am in a position to declare the future. I don't bother if I am right or wrong. Kevin Kelly has done it before: "Author of What Technology Wants" is displayed proudly on the book's cover. Kelly has a known track record as a technology evangelist. He has been editor famous of the Californian counterculture's catalogue Whole Earth Review, co-sponsor of the first Hackers Conference and executive editor at Wired Magazine. The Inevitable makes a big promise: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces that Shape Our Future. Cool trick: Every review of the book will surely spend the maximum allowed number of characters just to sum up these twelve forces! As a matter fact, the book has received much attention, but hardly any criticism. Although the book is listed as a "New York Times Bestseller" and is among the Top Ten in Amazon's Business Processes and Infrastructure-section, no solid review is to be found via Google – only interviews with the author, which basically function like advertisement. The impression of a Silicon Valley conspiracy is hard to resist. To be fair: In the opening chapter, where Kelly sets the tone, everything is done to avoid the impression that The Inevitable will just present random guesses at the future. The basic concept is this: There are some technical developments which are inevitable. But within the areas defined by these cornerstones, many options are possible. That sooner or later someone just must have come up with the invention of the telephone is, according to Kelly, inevitable. The i-phone, on the other hand, is not inevitable. The car was inevitable – the SUV is not. One might argue about the specific examples. But that there are some inventions which, in the history of a civilization such as ours, are very likely to happen is per se an appealing thought. A second element of inevitability is process. Once installed, a process will run by itself. If successful, it will be replicated. Kelly's example for this is the scientific method. "This methodical process of constant change and improvement was a million times better than inventing any particular product, because the process generated a million new products over the centuries since we invented it." Again: One might argue if something like the scientific method exists and if it does exist, it will really breed products. But as a general approach, looking for processes in order to detect inevitabilities seems promising. Some parts of the book indeed follow this line. In these parts, Kelly shows us how to think about the future in an interesting and inspiring way – without making predictions. "You'll simply plug into the grid and get AI as if it was electricity.