Bayes Theorem: A Visual Introduction For Beginners

From Google search results to Netflix recommendations and investment strategies, Bayes Theorem (also often called Bayes Rule or Bayes Formula) is used across countless industries to help calculate and assess probability. Bayesian statistics is taught in most first-year statistics classes across the nation, but there is one major problem that many students (and others who are interested in the theorem) face. The theorem is not intuitive for most people, and understanding how it works can be a challenge, especially because it is often taught without visual aids. In this guide, we unpack the various components of the theorem and provide a basic overview of how it works – and with illustrations to help. Three scenarios – the flu, breathalyzer tests, and peacekeeping – are used throughout the booklet to teach how problems involving Bayes Theorem can be approached and solved.