Low-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network for Solar Flares GOES Time-series Classification - IOPscience

Space weather phenomena such as solar flares have a massive destructive power when they reach a certain magnitude. Here, we explore the deep-learning approach in order to build a solar flare-forecasting model, while examining its limitations and feature-extraction ability based on the available Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) X-ray time-series data. We present a multilayer 1D convolutional neural network to forecast the solar flare event probability occurrence of M- and X-class flares at 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 72, and 96 hr time frames. The forecasting models were trained and evaluated in two different scenarios: (1) random selection and (2) chronological selection, which were compared afterward in terms of common score metrics. Additionally, we also compared our results to state-of-the-art flare-forecasting models.