The Resulting Fallacy Is Ruining Your Decisions - Issue 55: Trust

After pursuing a psychology Ph.D. on childhood language acquisition, Duke turned her skills to the poker table, where she has taken home over $4 million in lifetime earnings. For a time she was the leading female money winner in World Series of Poker history, and remains in the top five. She's written two books on poker strategy, and next year will release a book called Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts. Don't be so hard on yourself when things go badly and don't be so proud of yourself when they go well. In it, Duke parlays her experience with cards into general lessons about decision making that are relevant for all of us. If a well-reasoned decision leads to a negative outcome, was it the wrong decision? How do we distinguish between luck and skill?