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AI Magazine 

In this respect, what Pearl seems to have accomplished sometimes looks like a formalism in search of an interpretation without which the truth or the falsity of his claims is often impossible to assess. If the conceptions upon which his view is based do indeed conform to one or another of the traditional Bayesian models, moreover, then the very idea of a probability-based heuristic confronts a number of difficult problems of its own with respect to the distribution of probabilities to sets of alternative hypotheses, paths, or solutions, relative to the proposed refinements of those alternative hypotheses, paths, or solutions.6 These considerations suggest that traditional conceptions should not be taken for granted, especially if we assume that this is what Pearl intends by his observation that "Probability theory is today our primary (if not the only) language for formalizing concepts such as "average" and "likely," and therefore it is the most natural language for describing those aspects of (heuristic) performance that we seek to improve" (p. On general theoretical grounds, I think, there are excellent reasons to suppose that (a)-(f) are fundamental problems in AI science and that an extensional probabilistic analysis of this sort simply cannot lead to their effective solutions. In order to understand the traditional approach, however, this book is recommended with the reservations implied above, namely, that the author has omitted basic definitions that might not be familiar to some readers, and that serious difficulties seem to confront the theoretical framework he apparently endorses, where these difficulties are especially severe from an epistemological perspective.

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