A Theoretical details A.1 A note about the assumptions Note about the assumptions

A.2 Proof of Theorem 1 We restate the theorem for completeness: Theorem 1. Assume Any ODE's solution, if it exists and converges, converges to an's estimate of the conditional effect is We now bound the remaining term. 's computation of the surrogate intervention involved Thus, such error does not accumulate even with large step sizes. Theorem 4. Effect Connectivity is necessary for nonparametric effect estimation in Let Effect Connectivity be violated, i.e. there exists a Thus, nonparametric effect estimation is impossible. The effect threshold here is 0.1.Figure 7: True positive vs. False negative rate as we vary the threshold on average