Model Selection for Off-policy Evaluation: New Algorithms and Experimental Protocol

Holdout validation and hyperparameter tuning from data is a long-standing problem in offline reinforcement learning (RL). A standard framework is to use off-policy evaluation (OPE) methods to evaluate and select between different policies, but OPE methods either incur exponential variance (e.g., importance sampling) or have hyperparameters of their own (e.g., FQE and model-based). We focus on model selection for OPE itself, which is even more under-investigated. Concretely, we select among candidate value functions ("model-free") or dynamics models ("model-based") to best assess the performance of a target policy. We develop: (1) new model-free and model-based selectors with theoretical guarantees, and (2) a new experimental protocol for empirically evaluating them. Compared to the model-free protocol in prior works, our new protocol allows for more stable generation and better control of candidate value functions in an optimizationfree manner, and evaluation of model-free and model-based methods alike. We exemplify the protocol on Gym-Hopper, and find that our new model-free selector, LSTD-Tournament, demonstrates promising empirical performance.