Co-Validation: Using Model Disagreement on Unlabeled Data to Validate Classification Algorithms

In the context of binary classification, we define disagreement as a measure of how often two independently-trained models differ in their classification of unlabeled data. We explore the use of disagreement for error estimation and model selection. We call the procedure co-validation, since the two models effectively (in)validate one another by comparing results on unlabeled data, which we assume is relatively cheap and plentiful compared to labeled data. We show that per-instance disagreement is an unbiased estimate of the variance of error for that instance. We also show that disagreement provides a lower bound on the prediction (generalization) error, and a tight upper bound on the "variance of prediction error", or the variance of the average error across instances, where variance is measured across training sets.