Scaling Epidemic Inference on Contact Networks: Theory and Algorithms

Computational epidemiology is crucial in understanding and controlling infectious diseases, as highlighted by large-scale outbreaks such as COVID-19. Given the inherent uncertainty and variability of disease spread, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are widely used to predict infection peaks, estimate reproduction numbers, and evaluate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). While effective, MC-based methods require numerous runs to achieve statistically reliable estimates and variance, which suffer from high computational costs. In this work, we present a unified theoretical framework for analyzing disease spread dynamics on both directed and undirected contact networks, and propose an algorithm, RAPID, that significantly improves computational efficiency.