The behavior and dynamics of complex systems are in focus of many research fields. The complexity of such systems comes not only from the number of their elements, but also from the unavoidable emergence of new properties of the system, which are not just a simple summation of the properties of its elements. The behavior of complex systems can be fitted with a number of well developed models, which, however, do not incorporate the modularity and the evolution of a system simultaneously. In this work, we propose a generalized model that addresses this issue. Our model is developed within the Random Set Theory’s framework and allows for reconstructing the stochastic evolution diagrams of complex systems.

In multiagent team settings, the agents are often given a protocol for coordinating their actions. When such a protocol is not available, agents must engage in ad hoc teamwork to effectively cooperate with one another. A fully general ad hoc team agent needs to be capable of collaborating with a wide range of potential teammates on a varying set of joint tasks. This paper extends previous research in a new direction with the introduction of an efficient method for reasoning about the value of information.  Then, we show how previous theoretical results can aid ad hoc agents in a set of testbed pursuit domains.

Dots-And-Boxes is a well-known and widely-played combinatorial game. While the rules of play are very simple, the state space for even small games is extremely large, and finding the outcome under optimal play is correspondingly hard. In this paper we introduce a Dots-And-Boxes solver which is significantly faster than the current state-of-the-art: over an order-of-magnitude faster on several large problems. We describe our approach, which uses Alpha-Beta search and applies a number of techniques—both problem-specific and general—to reduce the number of duplicate states explored and reduce the search space to a manageable size. Using these techniques, we have determined for the first time that Dots- And-Boxes on a board of 4x5 boxes is a tie given optimal play. This is the largest game solved to date.

Selection bias, caused by preferential exclusion of units (or samples) from the data, is a major obstacle to valid causal inferences, for it cannot be removed or even detected by randomized experiments. This paper highlights several graphical and algebraic methods capable of mitigating and sometimes eliminating this bias.

Medical treatment decision making is a good application of knowledge representation and reasoning. We are particularly interested in using it to resolve treatment conflicts, a complicated condition when two treatments cannot be given simultaneously to a patient of multiple symptoms. The logic system is required to reason on cases with and without treatment conflicts. Thanks to the nonmonotonicity of Answer Set Programming (ASP), we elegantly automate medical treatment conflict resolving on an example problem and show the importance of nonmonotonicity in medical reasoning.

We also require a generic model of provenance The Web has evolved from a collection of hyperlinked documents in order to support the diverse ecosystem of sensor to a complex ecosystem of interconnected documents, platforms and data. We have investigated a number of existing services and devices. Due to the inherent open nature of the models for representing provenance information but Web, data can be published by anyone or any'thing'. As a found many of these to be tailored to specific domains result of this, there is enormous variation in the quality of (e.g.

We seek informative representations of the processes underlying time series data. As a first step, we address problems in which these processes can be approximated by linear models that vary smoothly over time. To facilitate estimation of these linear models, we introduce a method of dimension reduction which significantly reduces error when models are estimated locally for each point in time. This improvement is gained by performing dimension reduction implicitly through the model parameters rather than directly in the observation space.

One of the most ubiquitous AI applications is vehicle route planning. While state-of-the-art systems take into account current traffic conditions or historic traffic data, current planning approaches ignore the impact of their own plans on the future traffic conditions. We present a novel algorithm for self-aware route planning that uses the routes it plans for current vehicle traffic to more accurately predict future traffic conditions for subsequent cars. Our planner uses a roadmap with stochastic, time-varying traffic densities that are defined by a combination of historical data and the densities predicted by the planned routes for the cars ahead of the current traffic. We have applied our algorithm to large-scale traffic route planning, and demonstrated that our self-aware route planner can more accurately predict future traffic conditions, which results in a reduction of the travel time for those vehicles that use our algorithm.

Opponent modeling is a critical mechanism in repeated games. It allows a player to adapt its strategy in order to better respond to the presumed preferences of his opponents. We introduce a new modeling technique that adaptively balances exploitability and risk reduction. An opponent’s strategy is modeled with a set of possible strategies that contain the actual strategy with a high probability. The algorithm is safe as the expected payoff is above the minimax payoff with a high probability, and can exploit the opponents’ preferences when sufficient observations have been obtained. We apply them to normal-form games and stochastic games with a finite number of stages. The performance of the proposed approach is first demonstrated on repeated rock-paper-scissors games. Subsequently, the approach is evaluated in a human-robot table-tennis setting where the robot player learns to prepare to return a served ball. By modeling the human players, the robot chooses a forehand, backhand or middle preparation pose before they serve. The learned strategies can exploit the opponent’s preferences, leading to a higher rate of successful returns.

This paper describes a new model for understanding natural language commands given to autonomous systems that perform navigation and mobile manipulation in semi-structured environments. Previous approaches have used models with fixed structure to infer the likelihood of a sequence of actions given the environment and the command. In contrast, our framework, called Generalized Grounding Graphs, dynamically instantiates a probabilistic graphical model for a particular natural language command according to the command's hierarchical and compositional semantic structure. Our system performs inference in the model to successfully find and execute plans corresponding to natural language commands such as "Put the tire pallet on the truck." The model is trained using a corpus of commands collected using crowdsourcing. We pair each command with robot actions and use the corpus to learn the parameters of the model. We evaluate the robot's performance by inferring plans from natural language commands, executing each plan in a realistic robot simulator, and asking users to evaluate the system's performance. We demonstrate that our system can successfully follow many natural language commands from the corpus.