Based on World Health Organization (WHO) fact sheet in the 2011, outbreaks of poultry diseases especially Avian Influenza in poultry may raise global public health concerns due to their effect on poultry populations, their potential to cause serious disease in people, and their pandemic potential. In this research, we built a Poultry Diseases Expert System using Dempster-Shafer Theory. In this Poultry Diseases Expert System We describe five symptoms which include depression, combs, wattle, bluish face region, swollen face region, narrowness of eyes, and balance disorders. The result of the research is that Poultry Diseases Expert System has been successfully identifying poultry diseases.

In latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), topics are multinomial distributions over the entire vocabulary. However, the vocabulary usually contains many words that are not relevant in forming the topics. We adopt a variable selection method widely used in statistical modeling as a dimension reduction tool and combine it with LDA. In this variable selection model for LDA (vsLDA), topics are multinomial distributions over a subset of the vocabulary, and by excluding words that are not informative for finding the latent topic structure of the corpus, vsLDA finds topics that are more robust and discriminative. We compare three models, vsLDA, LDA with symmetric priors, and LDA with asymmetric priors, on heldout likelihood, MCMC chain consistency, and document classification. The performance of vsLDA is better than symmetric LDA for likelihood and classification, better than asymmetric LDA for consistency and classification, and about the same in the other comparisons.

This paper is concerned with the inference of the conditional independence graph G of a multivariate random vector Y of dimension n, a problem sometimes referred to as structure learning. We focus here on undirected decomposable graphs, whose popularity is mainly due to the tractable factorization they allow for the likelihood ([9, 20]); related work for directed graphical models can be found in [18]. Learning the conditional 1 independence graph G is an onerous task due to the large number of graphs on a set of n nodes, or variables. It is possible using optimization methods to find the graph which best fits the data according to some metric [23, 30, 13]; alternatively Bayesian model averaging may be used to accommodate for uncertainty in the estimated graph, or maximum a posteriori estimation may be used to select a given model from the posterior over graphs. Such an approach relies on a prior distribution π(G) over the set of decomposable graphs of a given size; through Bayes theorem, this prior is updated based on the data to give an a posteriori estimate of the distribution over graphs.

We present a simple and fast geometric method for modeling data by a union of affine subspaces. The method begins by forming a collection of local best-fit affine subspaces, i.e., subspaces approximating the data in local neighborhoods. The correct sizes of the local neighborhoods are determined automatically by the Jones' $\beta_2$ numbers (we prove under certain geometric conditions that our method finds the optimal local neighborhoods). The collection of subspaces is further processed by a greedy selection procedure or a spectral method to generate the final model. We discuss applications to tracking-based motion segmentation and clustering of faces under different illuminating conditions. We give extensive experimental evidence demonstrating the state of the art accuracy and speed of the suggested algorithms on these problems and also on synthetic hybrid linear data as well as the MNIST handwritten digits data; and we demonstrate how to use our algorithms for fast determination of the number of affine subspaces.

Domain knowledge is crucial for effective performance in autonomous control systems. Typically, human effort is required to encode this knowledge into a control algorithm. In this paper, we present an approach to language grounding which automatically interprets text in the context of a complex control application, such as a game, and uses domain knowledge extracted from the text to improve control performance. Both text analysis and control strategies are learned jointly using only a feedback signal inherent to the application. To effectively leverage textual information, our method automatically extracts the text segment most relevant to the current game state, and labels it with a task-centric predicate structure. This labeled text is then used to bias an action selection policy for the game, guiding it towards promising regions of the action space. We encode our model for text analysis and game playing in a multi-layer neural network, representing linguistic decisions via latent variables in the hidden layers, and game action quality via the output layer. Operating within the Monte-Carlo Search framework, we estimate model parameters using feedback from simulated games. We apply our approach to the complex strategy game Civilization II using the official game manual as the text guide. Our results show that a linguistically-informed game-playing agent significantly outperforms its language-unaware counterpart, yielding a 34% absolute improvement and winning over 65% of games when playing against the built-in AI of Civilization.

In binary classification problems, mainly two approaches have been proposed; one is loss function approach and the other is uncertainty set approach. The loss function approach is applied to major learning algorithms such as support vector machine (SVM) and boosting methods. The loss function represents the penalty of the decision function on the training samples. In the learning algorithm, the empirical mean of the loss function is minimized to obtain the classifier. Against a backdrop of the development of mathematical programming, nowadays learning algorithms based on loss functions are widely applied to real-world data analysis. In addition, statistical properties of such learning algorithms are well-understood based on a lots of theoretical works. On the other hand, the learning method using the so-called uncertainty set is used in hard-margin SVM, mini-max probability machine (MPM) and maximum margin MPM. In the learning algorithm, firstly, the uncertainty set is defined for each binary label based on the training samples. Then, the best separating hyperplane between the two uncertainty sets is employed as the decision function. This is regarded as an extension of the maximum-margin approach. The uncertainty set approach has been studied as an application of robust optimization in the field of mathematical programming. The statistical properties of learning algorithms with uncertainty sets have not been intensively studied. In this paper, we consider the relation between the above two approaches. We point out that the uncertainty set is described by using the level set of the conjugate of the loss function. Based on such relation, we study statistical properties of learning algorithms using uncertainty sets.

Bayesian Optimization aims at optimizing an unknown non-convex/concave function that is costly to evaluate. We are interested in application scenarios where concurrent function evaluations are possible. Under such a setting, BO could choose to either sequentially evaluate the function, one input at a time and wait for the output of the function before making the next selection, or evaluate the function at a batch of multiple inputs at once. These two different settings are commonly referred to as the sequential and batch settings of Bayesian Optimization. In general, the sequential setting leads to better optimization performance as each function evaluation is selected with more information, whereas the batch setting has an advantage in terms of the total experimental time (the number of iterations). In this work, our goal is to combine the strength of both settings. Specifically, we systematically analyze Bayesian optimization using Gaussian process as the posterior estimator and provide a hybrid algorithm that, based on the current state, dynamically switches between a sequential policy and a batch policy with variable batch sizes. We provide theoretical justification for our algorithm and present experimental results on eight benchmark BO problems. The results show that our method achieves substantial speedup (up to %78) compared to a pure sequential policy, without suffering any significant performance loss.

We introduce in this paper a new way of optimizing the natural extension of the quantization error using in k-means clustering to dissimilarity data. The proposed method is based on hierarchical clustering analysis combined with multilevel heuristic refinement. The method is computationally efficient and achieves better quantization errors than the relational k-means.

Given the superposition of a low-rank matrix plus the product of a known fat compression matrix times a sparse matrix, the goal of this paper is to establish deterministic conditions under which exact recovery of the low-rank and sparse components becomes possible. This fundamental identifiability issue arises with traffic anomaly detection in backbone networks, and subsumes compressed sensing as well as the timely low-rank plus sparse matrix recovery tasks encountered in matrix decomposition problems. Leveraging the ability of $\ell_1$- and nuclear norms to recover sparse and low-rank matrices, a convex program is formulated to estimate the unknowns. Analysis and simulations confirm that the said convex program can recover the unknowns for sufficiently low-rank and sparse enough components, along with a compression matrix possessing an isometry property when restricted to operate on sparse vectors. When the low-rank, sparse, and compression matrices are drawn from certain random ensembles, it is established that exact recovery is possible with high probability. First-order algorithms are developed to solve the nonsmooth convex optimization problem with provable iteration complexity guarantees. Insightful tests with synthetic and real network data corroborate the effectiveness of the novel approach in unveiling traffic anomalies across flows and time, and its ability to outperform existing alternatives.

We present a method to estimate block membership of nodes in a random graph generated by a stochastic blockmodel. We use an embedding procedure motivated by the random dot product graph model, a particular example of the latent position model. The embedding associates each node with a vector; these vectors are clustered via minimization of a square error criterion. We prove that this method is consistent for assigning nodes to blocks, as only a negligible number of nodes will be mis-assigned. We prove consistency of the method for directed and undirected graphs. The consistent block assignment makes possible consistent parameter estimation for a stochastic blockmodel. We extend the result in the setting where the number of blocks grows slowly with the number of nodes. Our method is also computationally feasible even for very large graphs. We compare our method to Laplacian spectral clustering through analysis of simulated data and a graph derived from Wikipedia documents.