We strengthen recent connections between prediction markets and learning byshowing that a natural class of market makers can be understood as performing stochastic mirror descent when trader demands are sequentially drawnfrom a fixed distribution. This provides new insights into how market prices (and price paths) may be interpreted as a summary of the market's belief distribution by relating them to the optimization problem being solved. In particular, we show that under certain conditions the stationary pointof the stochastic process of prices generated by the market is equal to the market's Walrasian equilibrium of classic market analysis. Together, these results suggest how traditional market making mechanisms might be replaced with general purpose learning algorithms while still retaining guaranteesabout their behaviour.

The minimax KL-divergence of any distribution from all distributions in a collection P has several practical implications. In compression, it is called redundancy and represents the least additional number of bits over the entropy needed to encode the output of any distribution in P. In online estimation andlearning, it is the lowest expected log-loss regret when guessing a sequence of random values generated by a distribution in P. In hypothesis testing, it upper bounds the largest number of distinguishable distributions in P. Motivated by problems ranging from population estimation to text classification and speech recognition, several machine-learning and information-theory researchers have recently considered label-invariant observations and properties induced by i.i.d.

Probabilistic planning captures the uncertainty of plan execution by probabilistically modeling the effects of actions in the environment, and therefore the probability of reaching different states from a given state and action. In order to compute a solution for a probabilistic planning problem, planners need to manage the uncertainty associated with the different paths from the initial state to a goal state. Several approaches to manage uncertainty were proposed, e.g., consider all paths at once, perform determinization of actions, and sampling. In this paper, we introduce trajectory-based short-sighted Stochastic Shortest Path Problems (SSPs), a novel approach to manage uncertainty for probabilistic planning problems in which states reachable with low probability are substituted by artificial goals that heuristically estimate their cost to reach a goal state. We also extend the theoretical results of Short-Sighted Probabilistic Planner (SSiPP) [ref] by proving that SSiPP always finishes and is asymptotically optimal under sufficient conditions on the structure of short-sighted SSPs. We empirically compare SSiPP using trajectory-based short-sighted SSPs with the winners of the previous probabilistic planning competitions and other state-of-the-art planners in the triangle tireworld problems. Trajectory-based SSiPP outperforms all the competitors and is the only planner able to scale up to problem number 60, a problem in which the optimal solution contains approximately $10^{70}$ states.

Sum-product networks are a new deep architecture that can perform fast, exact inference onhigh-treewidth models. Only generative methods for training SPNs have been proposed to date. In this paper, we present the first discriminative training algorithms for SPNs, combining the high accuracy of the former with the representational power and tractability of the latter. We show that the class of tractable discriminative SPNs is broader than the class of tractable generative ones, and propose an efficient backpropagation-style algorithm for computing the gradient of the conditional log likelihood. Standard gradient descent suffers from the diffusion problem, but networks with many layers can be learned reliably using "hard"gradient descent, where marginal inference is replaced by MPE inference (i.e.,inferring the most probable state of the non-evidence variables). The resulting updates have a simple and intuitive form. We test discriminative SPNs on standard image classification tasks. We obtain the best results to date on the CIFAR-10 dataset, using fewer features than prior methods with an SPN architecture thatlearns local image structure discriminatively. We also report the highest published test accuracy on STL-10 even though we only use the labeled portion of the dataset.

We study the problem of identifying the best arm(s) in the stochastic multi-armed bandit setting. This problem has been studied in the literature from two different perspectives: fixed budget and fixed confidence. We propose a unifying approach that leads to a meta-algorithm called unified gap-based exploration (UGapE), with a common structure and similar theoretical analysis for these two settings. We prove a performance bound for the two versions of the algorithm showing that the two problems are characterized by the same notion of complexity. We also show how the UGapE algorithm as well as its theoretical analysis can be extended to take into account the variance of the arms and to multiple bandits. Finally, we evaluate the performance of UGapE and compare it with a number of existing fixed budget and fixed confidence algorithms.

We apply salient feature detection and tracking in videos to simulate fixations and smooth pursuit in human vision. With tracked sequences as input, a hierarchical network of modules learns invariant features using a temporal slowness constraint. The network encodes invariance which are increasingly complex with hierarchy. Although learned from videos, our features are spatial instead of spatial-temporal, and well suited for extracting features from still images. We applied our features to four datasets (COIL-100, Caltech 101, STL-10, PubFig), and observe a consistent improvement of 4% to 5% in classification accuracy. With this approach, we achieve state-of-the-art recognition accuracy 61% on STL-10 dataset.

Continuous relaxations play an important role in discrete optimization, but have not seen much use in approximate probabilistic inference. Here we show that a general form of the Gaussian Integral Trick makes it possible to transform a wide class of discrete variable undirected models into fully continuous systems. The continuous representation allows the use of gradient-based Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for inference, results in new ways of estimating normalization constants (partition functions), and in general opens up a number of new avenues for inference in difficult discrete systems. We demonstrate some of these continuous relaxation inference algorithms on a number of illustrative problems.

Multiple-output regression models require estimating multiple functions, one for each output. To improve parameter estimation in such models, methods based on structural regularization of the model parameters are usually needed. In this paper, we present a multiple-output regression model that leverages the covariance structure of the functions (i.e., how the multiple functions are related with each other) as well as the conditional covariance structure of the outputs. This is in contrast with existing methods that usually take into account only one of these structures. More importantly, unlike most of the other existing methods, none of these structures need be known a priori in our model, and are learned from the data. Several previously proposed structural regularization based multiple-output regression models turn out to be special cases of our model. Moreover, in addition to being a rich model for multiple-output regression, our model can also be used in estimating the graphical model structure of a set of variables (multivariate outputs) conditioned on another set of variables (inputs). Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Methods for efficiently estimating Shannon entropy of data streams have important applicationsin learning, data mining, and network anomaly detections (e.g., the DDoS attacks). For nonnegative data streams, the method of Compressed Counting (CC) [11, 13] based on maximally-skewed stable random projections can provide accurate estimates of the Shannon entropy using small storage. However, CCis no longer applicable when entries of data streams can be below zero, which is a common scenario when comparing two streams. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for entropy estimation in general data streams which allow negative entries. In our method, the Shannon entropy is approximated by the finite differenceof two correlated frequency moments estimated from correlated samples of symmetric stable random variables. Interestingly, the estimator for the moment we recommend for entropy estimation barely has bounded variance itself, whereas the common geometric mean estimator (which has bounded higher-order moments) is not sufficient for entropy estimation. Our experiments confirm that this method is able to well approximate the Shannon entropy using small storage.

Many data such as social networks, movie preferences or knowledge bases are multi-relational, in that they describe multiple relationships between entities. While there is a large body of work focused on modeling these data, few considered modeling these multiple types of relationships jointly. Further, existing approaches tend to breakdown when the number of these types grows. In this paper, we propose a method for modeling large multi-relational datasets, with possibly thousands of relations. Our model is based on a bilinear structure, which captures the various orders of interaction of the data, but also shares sparse latent factors across different relations. We illustrate the performance of our approach on standard tensor-factorization datasets where we attain, or outperform, state-of-the-art results. Finally, a NLP application demonstrates our scalability and the ability of our model to learn efficient, and semantically meaningful verb representations.