In robotics, controllers make the robot solve a task within a specific context. The context can describe the objectives of the robot or physical properties of the environment and is always specified before task execution. To generalize the controller to multiple contexts, we follow a hierarchical approach for policy learning: A lower-level policy controls the robot for a given context and an upper-level policy generalizes among contexts. Current approaches for learning such upper-level policies are based on model-free policy search, which require an excessive number of interactions of the robot with its environment. More data-efficient policy search approaches are model based but, thus far, without the capability of learning hierarchical policies. We propose a new model-based policy search approach that can also learn contextual upper-level policies. Our approach is based on learning probabilistic forward models for long-term predictions. Using these predictions, we use information-theoretic insights to improve the upper-level policy. Our method achieves a substantial improvement in learning speed compared to existing methods on simulated and real robotic tasks.

Determining the existence of a collision-free path between two points is one of the most fundamental questions in robotics.  However, in situations where crossing an obstacle is costly but not impossible, it may be more appropriate to ask for the path that crosses the fewest obstacles.  This may arise in both autonomous outdoor navigation (where the obstacles are rough but not completely impassable terrain) or indoor navigation (where the obstacles are doors that can be opened if necessary).  This problem, the minimum constraint removal problem , is at least as hard as the underlying path existence problem.  In this paper, we demonstrate that the minimum constraint removal problem is NP-hard for navigation in the plane even when the obstacles are all convex polygons, a case where the path existence problem is very easy.

This paper tackles high-level decision-making techniques for robotic missions, which involve both active sensing and symbolic goal reaching, under uncertain probabilistic environments and strong time constraints. Our case study is a POMDP model of an online multi-target detection and recognition mission by an autonomous UAV. The POMDP model of the multi-target detection and recognition problem is generated online from a list of areas of interest, which are automatically extracted at the beginning of the flight from a coarse-grained high altitude observation of the scene. The POMDP observation model relies on a statistical abstraction of an image processing algorithm's output used to detect targets. As the POMDP problem cannot be known and thus optimized before the beginning of the flight, our main contribution is an "optimize-while-execute" algorithmic framework: it drives a POMDP sub-planner to optimize and execute the POMDP policy in parallel under action duration constraints. We present new results from real outdoor flights and SAIL simulations, which highlight both the benefits of using POMDPs in multi-target detection and recognition missions, and of our "optimize-while-execute" paradigm.

Skills can often be performed in many different ways. In order to provide robots with human-like adaptation capabilities, it is of great interest to learn several ways of achieving the same skills in parallel, since eventual changes in the environment or in the robot can make some solutions unfeasible. In this case, the knowledge of multiple solutions can avoid relearning the task. This problem is addressed in this paper within the framework of Reinforcement Learning, as the automatic determination of multiple optimal parameterized policies. For this purpose, a model handling a variable number of policies is built using a Bayesian non-parametric approach. The algorithm is first compared to single policy algorithms on known benchmarks. It is then applied to a typical robotic problem presenting multiple solutions.

A key challenge to create a sustainable and energy-efficient society is in making consumer demand adaptive to energy supply, especially renewable supply. In this paper, we propose a partially-centralized organization of consumers, namely, a consumer cooperative for purchasing electricity from the market. We propose a novel multiagent coordination algorithm to shape the energy consumption of the cooperative. In the cooperative, a central coordinator buys the electricity for the whole group and consumers make their own consumption decisions based on their private consumption constraints and preferences. To coordinate individual consumers under incomplete information, we propose an iterative algorithm in which a virtual price signal is sent by the coordinator to induce consumers to shift demand. We prove that our algorithm converges to the central optimal solution. Additionally we analyze the convergence rate of the algorithm via simulations on randomly generated instances. The results indicate scalability with respect to the number of agents and consumption slots.

Wildland fires (or wildfires) occur on all continents except for Antarctica. These fires threaten communities, change ecosystems, destroy vast quantities of natural resources and the cost estimates of the damage done annually is in the billions of dollars. Controlling wildland fires is resource-intensive and there are numerous examples where the resource demand has outstripped resource availability. Trends in changing climates, fire occurrence and the expansion of the wildland-urban interface all point to increased resource shortages in the future. One approach for coping with these shortages has been the sharing of resources across different wildland-fire agencies. This introduces new issues as agencies have to balance their own needs and risk-management with their desire to help fellow agencies in need. Using ideas from the field of multiagent systems, we conduct the first analysis of strategic issues arising in resource-sharing for wildland-fire control. We also argue that the wildland-fire domain has numerous features that make it attractive to researchers in artificial intelligence and computational sustainability.

Archived data from the WSR-88D network of weather radars in the US hold detailed information about the continent-scale migratory movements of birds over the last 20 years. However, significant technical challenges must be overcome to understand this information and harness its potential for science and conservation. We present an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm to reconstruct the velocity fields of birds migrating in the vicinity of a radar station. This is part of a larger project to quantify bird migration at large scales using weather radar data.

An attractive approach to managing electricity demand in the Smart Grid relies on real-time pricing (RTP) tariffs, where customers are incentivized to quickly adapt to changes in the cost of supply. However, choosing amongst competitive RTP tariffs is difficult when tariff prices change rapidly. The problem is further complicated when we assume that the price changes for a tariff are published in real-time only to those customers who are currently subscribed to that tariff, thus making the prices partially observable. We present models and learning algorithms for autonomous agents that can address the tariff selection problem on behalf of customers. We introduce 'Negotiated Learning', a general algorithm that enables a self-interested sequential decision-making agent to periodically select amongst a variable set of 'entities' (e.g., tariffs) by negotiating with other agents in the environment to gather information about dynamic partially observable entity 'features' (e.g., tariff prices) that affect the entity selection decision. We also contribute a formulation of the tariff selection problem as a 'Negotiable Entity Selection Process', a novel representation. We support our contributions with intuitive justification and simulation experiments based on real data on an open Smart Grid simulation platform.  

Our work is motivated by an important network design application in computational sustainability concerning wildlife conservation. In the face of human development and climate change, it is important that conservation plans for protecting landscape connectivity exhibit certain level of robustness. While previous work has focused on conservation strategies that result in a connected network of habitat reserves, the robustness of the proposed solutions has not been taken into account. In order to address this important aspect, we formalize the problem as a node-weighted bi-criteria network design problem with connectivity requirements on the number of disjoint paths between pairs of nodes. While in most previous work on survivable network design the objective is to minimize the cost of the selected network, our goal is to optimize the quality of the selected paths within a specified budget, while meeting the connectivity requirements. We characterize the complexity of the problem under different restrictions. We provide a mixed-integer programming encoding that allows for finding solutions with optimality guarantees, as well as a hybrid local search method with better scaling behavior but no guarantees. We evaluate the typical-case performance of our approaches using a synthetic benchmark, and apply them to a large-scale real-world network design problem concerning the conservation of wolverine and lynx populations in the U.S. Rocky Mountains (Montana).

Sustainable energy systems of the future will need more than efficient, clean, and low-cost energy sources. They will also need efficient price signals that motivate sustainable energy consumption behaviors and a tight real-time alignment of energy demand with supply from renewable and traditional sources. The Power Trading Agent Competition (Power TAC) is a rich, competitive, open-source simulation platform for future retail power markets built on real-world data and state-of-the-art customer models. Its purpose is to help researchers understand the dynamics of customer and retailer decision-making as well as the robustness of proposed market designs. Power TAC invites researchers to develop autonomous electricity broker agents and to pit them against best-in-class strategies in global competitions, the first of which will be held at AAAI 2013. Power TAC competitions provide compelling, actionable information for policy makers and industry leaders. We describe the competition scenario, demonstrate the realism of the Power TAC platform, and analyze key characteristics of successful brokers in one of our 2012 pilot competitions between seven research groups from five different countries.