An inductive probabilistic classification rule must generally obey the principles of Bayesian predictive inference, such that all observed and unobserved stochastic quantities are jointly modeled and the parameter uncertainty is fully acknowledged through the posterior predictive distribution. Several such rules have been recently considered and their asymptotic behavior has been characterized under the assumption that the observed features or variables used for building a classifier are conditionally independent given a simultaneous labeling of both the training samples and those from an unknown origin. Here we extend the theoretical results to predictive classifiers acknowledging feature dependencies either through graphical models or sparser alternatives defined as stratified graphical models. We also show through experimentation with both synthetic and real data that the predictive classifiers based on stratified graphical models have consistently best accuracy compared with the predictive classifiers based on either conditionally independent features or on ordinary graphical models.

This paper is about variable selection, clustering and estimation in an unsupervised high-dimensional setting. Our approach is based on fitting constrained Gaussian mixture models, where we learn the number of clusters $K$ and the set of relevant variables $S$ using a generalized Bayesian posterior with a sparsity inducing prior. We prove a sparsity oracle inequality which shows that this procedure selects the optimal parameters $K$ and $S$. This procedure is implemented using a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, based on a clustering-oriented greedy proposal, which makes the convergence to the posterior very fast.

Properties like logical closure and consistency are important properties in any logical reasoning system. Caminada and Amgoud showed that not every logic-based argument system satisfies these relevant properties. But under conditions like closure under contraposition or transposition of the monotonic part of the underlying logic, ASPIC-like systems satisfy these properties. In contrast, the logical closure and consistency properties are not well-understood for other well-known and widely applied systems like logic programming or assumption based argumentation. Though conditions like closure under contraposition or transposition seem intuitive in ASPIC-like systems, they rule out many sensible ASPIC-like systems that satisfy both properties of closure and consistency. We present a new condition referred to as the self-contradiction axiom that guarantees the consistency property in both ASPIC-like and assumption-based systems and is implied by both properties of closure under contraposition or transposition. We develop a logic-associated abstract argumentation framework, by associating abstract argumentation with abstract logics to represent the conclusions of arguments. We show that logic-associated abstract argumentation frameworks capture ASPIC-like systems (without preferences) and assumption-based argumentation. We present two simple and natural properties of compactness and cohesion in logic-associated abstract argumentation frameworks and show that they capture the logical closure and consistency properties. We demonstrate that in both assumption-based argumentation and ASPIC-like systems, cohesion follows naturally from the self-contradiction axiom. We further give a translation from ASPIC-like systems (without preferences) into equivalent assumption-based systems that keeps the self-contradiction axiom invariant.

We tackle the problem of inferring node labels in a partially labeled graph where each node in the graph has multiple label types and each label type has a large number of possible labels. Our primary example, and the focus of this paper, is the joint inference of label types such as hometown, current city, and employers, for users connected by a social network. Standard label propagation fails to consider the properties of the label types and the interactions between them. Our proposed method, called EdgeExplain, explicitly models these, while still enabling scalable inference under a distributed message-passing architecture. On a billion-node subset of the Facebook social network, EdgeExplain significantly outperforms label propagation for several label types, with lifts of up to 120% for recall@1 and 60% for recall@3.

RES, a regularized stochastic version of the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton method is proposed to solve convex optimization problems with stochastic objectives. The use of stochastic gradient descent algorithms is widespread, but the number of iterations required to approximate optimal arguments can be prohibitive in high dimensional problems. Application of second order methods, on the other hand, is impracticable because computation of objective function Hessian inverses incurs excessive computational cost. BFGS modifies gradient descent by introducing a Hessian approximation matrix computed from finite gradient differences. RES utilizes stochastic gradients in lieu of deterministic gradients for both, the determination of descent directions and the approximation of the objective function's curvature. Since stochastic gradients can be computed at manageable computational cost RES is realizable and retains the convergence rate advantages of its deterministic counterparts. Convergence results show that lower and upper bounds on the Hessian egeinvalues of the sample functions are sufficient to guarantee convergence to optimal arguments. Numerical experiments showcase reductions in convergence time relative to stochastic gradient descent algorithms and non-regularized stochastic versions of BFGS. An application of RES to the implementation of support vector machines is developed.

The analysis of comorbidity is an open and complex research field in the branch of psychiatry, where clinical experience and several studies suggest that the relation among the psychiatric disorders may have etiological and treatment implications. In this paper, we are interested in applying latent feature modeling to find the latent structure behind the psychiatric disorders that can help to examine and explain the relationships among them. To this end, we use the large amount of information collected in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) database and propose to model these data using a nonparametric latent model based on the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Due to the discrete nature of the data, we first need to adapt the observation model for discrete random variables. We propose a generative model in which the observations are drawn from a multinomial-logit distribution given the IBP matrix. The implementation of an efficient Gibbs sampler is accomplished using the Laplace approximation, which allows integrating out the weighting factors of the multinomial-logit likelihood model. We also provide a variational inference algorithm for this model, which provides a complementary (and less expensive in terms of computational complexity) alternative to the Gibbs sampler allowing us to deal with a larger number of data. Finally, we use the model to analyze comorbidity among the psychiatric disorders diagnosed by experts from the NESARC database.

Many relations of scientific interest are nonlinear, and even in linear systems distributions are often non-Gaussian, for example in fMRI BOLD data. A class of search procedures for causal relations in high dimensional data relies on sample derived conditional independence decisions. The most common applications rely on Gaussian tests that can be systematically erroneous in nonlinear non-Gaussian cases. Recent work (Gretton et al. (2009), Tillman et al. (2009), Zhang et al. (2011)) has proposed conditional independence tests using Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). Among these, perhaps the most efficient has been KCI (Kernel Conditional Independence, Zhang et al. (2011)), with computational requirements that grow effectively at least as O(N3), placing it out of range of large sample size analysis, and restricting its applicability to high dimensional data sets. We propose a class of O(N2) tests using conditional correlation independence (CCI) that require a few seconds on a standard workstation for tests that require tens of minutes to hours for the KCI method, depending on degree of parallelization, with similar accuracy. For accuracy on difficult nonlinear, non-Gaussian data sets, we also compare a recent test due to Harris & Drton (2012), applicable to nonlinear, non-Gaussian distributions in the Gaussian copula, as well as to partial correlation, a linear Gaussian test.

Many real life problems that can be solved by constraint programming, come from uncertain and dynamic environments. Because of the dynamism, the original problem may change over time, and thus the solution found for the original problem may become invalid. For this reason, dealing with such problems has become an important issue in the fields of constraint programming. In some cases, there exist extant knowledge about the uncertain and dynamic environment. In other cases, this information is fragmentary or unknown. In this paper, we extend the concept of robustness and stability for Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSPs) with ordered domains, where only limited assumptions need to be made as to possible changes. We present a search algorithm that searches for both robust and stable solutions for CSPs of this nature. It is well-known that meeting both criteria simultaneously is a desirable objective for constraint solving in uncertain and dynamic environments. We also present compelling evidence that our search algorithm outperforms other general-purpose algorithms for dynamic CSPs using random instances and benchmarks derived from real life problems.

We generalize recent theoretical work on the minimal number of layers of narrow deep belief networks that can approximate any probability distribution on the states of their visible units arbitrarily well. We relax the setting of binary units (Sutskever and Hinton, 2008; Le Roux and Bengio, 2008, 2010; Mont\'ufar and Ay, 2011) to units with arbitrary finite state spaces, and the vanishing approximation error to an arbitrary approximation error tolerance. For example, we show that a $q$-ary deep belief network with $L\geq 2+\frac{q^{\lceil m-\delta \rceil}-1}{q-1}$ layers of width $n \leq m + \log_q(m) + 1$ for some $m\in \mathbb{N}$ can approximate any probability distribution on $\{0,1,\ldots,q-1\}^n$ without exceeding a Kullback-Leibler divergence of $\delta$. Our analysis covers discrete restricted Boltzmann machines and na\"ive Bayes models as special cases.

The normalized maximized likelihood (NML) provides the minimax regret solution in universal data compression, gambling, and prediction, and it plays an essential role in the minimum description length (MDL) method of statistical modeling and estimation. Here we show that the normalized maximum likelihood has a Bayes-like representation as a mixture of the component models, even in finite samples, though the weights of linear combination may be both positive and negative. This representation addresses in part the relationship between MDL and Bayes modeling. This representation has the advantage of speeding the calculation of marginals and conditionals required for coding and prediction applications.