We introduce a probabilistic approach to the LMS filter. By means of an efficient approximation, this approach provides an adaptable step-size LMS algorithm together with a measure of uncertainty about the estimation. In addition, the proposed approximation preserves the linear complexity of the standard LMS. Numerical results show the improved performance of the algorithm with respect to standard LMS and state-of-the-art algorithms with similar complexity. The goal of this work, therefore, is to open the door to bring some more Bayesian machine learning techniques to adaptive filtering.

Mastering the game of Go has remained a long standing challenge to the field of AI. Modern computer Go systems rely on processing millions of possible future positions to play well, but intuitively a stronger and more 'humanlike' way to play the game would be to rely on pattern recognition abilities rather then brute force computation. Following this sentiment, we train deep convolutional neural networks to play Go by training them to predict the moves made by expert Go players. To solve this problem we introduce a number of novel techniques, including a method of tying weights in the network to 'hard code' symmetries that are expect to exist in the target function, and demonstrate in an ablation study they considerably improve performance. Our final networks are able to achieve move prediction accuracies of 41.1% and 44.4% on two different Go datasets, surpassing previous state of the art on this task by significant margins. Additionally, while previous move prediction programs have not yielded strong Go playing programs, we show that the networks trained in this work acquired high levels of skill. Our convolutional neural networks can consistently defeat the well known Go program GNU Go, indicating it is state of the art among programs that do not use Monte Carlo Tree Search. It is also able to win some games against state of the art Go playing program Fuego while using a fraction of the play time. This success at playing Go indicates high level principles of the game were learned.

We introduce and study methods for inferring and learning from correspondences among neurons. The approach enables alignment of data from distinct multiunit studies of nervous systems. We show that the methods for inferring correspondences combine data effectively from cross-animal studies to make joint inferences about behavioral decision making that are not possible with the data from a single animal. We focus on data collection, machine learning, and prediction in the representative and long-studied invertebrate nervous system of the European medicinal leech. Acknowledging the computational intractability of the general problem of identifying correspondences among neurons, we introduce efficient computational procedures for matching neurons across animals. The methods include techniques that adjust for missing cells or additional cells in the different data sets that may reflect biological or experimental variation. The methods highlight the value harnessing inference and learning in new kinds of computational microscopes for multiunit neurobiological studies.

A stochastic combinatorial semi-bandit is an online learning problem where at each step a learning agent chooses a subset of ground items subject to constraints, and then observes stochastic weights of these items and receives their sum as a payoff. In this paper, we close the problem of computationally and sample efficient learning in stochastic combinatorial semi-bandits. In particular, we analyze a UCB-like algorithm for solving the problem, which is known to be computationally efficient; and prove $O(K L (1 / \Delta) \log n)$ and $O(\sqrt{K L n \log n})$ upper bounds on its $n$-step regret, where $L$ is the number of ground items, $K$ is the maximum number of chosen items, and $\Delta$ is the gap between the expected returns of the optimal and best suboptimal solutions. The gap-dependent bound is tight up to a constant factor and the gap-free bound is tight up to a polylogarithmic factor.

Pointwise-competitive classifier from class F is required to classify identically to the best classifier in hindsight from F. For noisy, agnostic settings we present a strategy for learning pointwise-competitive classifiers from a finite training sample provided that the classifier can abstain from prediction at a certain region of its choice. For some interesting hypothesis classes and families of distributions, the measure of this rejected region is shown to be diminishing at a fast rate, with high probability. Exact implementation of the proposed learning strategy is dependent on an ERM oracle that can be hard to compute in the agnostic case. We thus consider a heuristic approximation procedure that is based on SVMs, and show empirically that this algorithm consistently outperforms a traditional rejection mechanism based on distance from decision boundary.

We provide a general theory of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring high dimensional latent variable models. In particular, we make two contributions: (i) For parameter estimation, we propose a novel high dimensional EM algorithm which naturally incorporates sparsity structure into parameter estimation. With an appropriate initialization, this algorithm converges at a geometric rate and attains an estimator with the (near-)optimal statistical rate of convergence. (ii) Based on the obtained estimator, we propose new inferential procedures for testing hypotheses and constructing confidence intervals for low dimensional components of high dimensional parameters. For a broad family of statistical models, our framework establishes the first computationally feasible approach for optimal estimation and asymptotic inference in high dimensions. Our theory is supported by thorough numerical results.

This paper establishes minimax rates for online regression with arbitrary classes of functions and general losses. We show that below a certain threshold for the complexity of the function class, the minimax rates depend on both the curvature of the loss function and the sequential complexities of the class. Above this threshold, the curvature of the loss does not affect the rates. Furthermore, for the case of square loss, our results point to the interesting phenomenon: whenever sequential and i.i.d. empirical entropies match, the rates for statistical and online learning are the same. In addition to the study of minimax regret, we derive a generic forecaster that enjoys the established optimal rates. We also provide a recipe for designing online prediction algorithms that can be computationally efficient for certain problems. We illustrate the techniques by deriving existing and new forecasters for the case of finite experts and for online linear regression.

We focus on the distribution regression problem: regressing to a real-valued response from a probability distribution. Although there exist a large number of similarity measures between distributions, very little is known about their generalization performance in specific learning tasks. Learning problems formulated on distributions have an inherent two-stage sampled difficulty: in practice only samples from sampled distributions are observable, and one has to build an estimate on similarities computed between sets of points. To the best of our knowledge, the only existing method with consistency guarantees for distribution regression requires kernel density estimation as an intermediate step (which suffers from slow convergence issues in high dimensions), and the domain of the distributions to be compact Euclidean. In this paper, we provide theoretical guarantees for a remarkably simple algorithmic alternative to solve the distribution regression problem: embed the distributions to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and learn a ridge regressor from the embeddings to the outputs. Our main contribution is to prove the consistency of this technique in the two-stage sampled setting under mild conditions (on separable, topological domains endowed with kernels). For a given total number of observations, we derive convergence rates as an explicit function of the problem difficulty. As a special case, we answer a 15-year-old open question: we establish the consistency of the classical set kernel [Haussler, 1999; Gartner et. al, 2002] in regression, and cover more recent kernels on distributions, including those due to [Christmann and Steinwart, 2010].

This paper aims at justifying LWF and AMP chain graphs by showing that they do not represent arbitrary independence models. Specifically, we show that every chain graph is inclusion optimal wrt the intersection of the independence models represented by a set of directed and acyclic graphs under conditioning. This implies that the independence model represented by the chain graph can be accounted for by a set of causal models that are subject to selection bias, which in turn can be accounted for by a system that switches between different regimes or configurations.

The problem of drawing samples from a discrete distribution can be converted into a discrete optimization problem. In this work, we show how sampling from a continuous distribution can be converted into an optimization problem over continuous space. Central to the method is a stochastic process recently described in mathematical statistics that we call the Gumbel process. We present a new construction of the Gumbel process and A* sampling, a practical generic sampling algorithm that searches for the maximum of a Gumbel process using A* search. We analyze the correctness and convergence time of A* sampling and demonstrate empirically that it makes more efficient use of bound and likelihood evaluations than the most closely related adaptive rejection sampling-based algorithms.